Retail Sales (Sep.)

The 0.7% m/m rise in retail sales in September suggests goods spending held up a little better than we had anticipated, but real consumption growth still slowed sharply in the third quarter.
Andrew Hunter Senior US Economist
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US Data Response

ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.)

The November ISM manufacturing survey suggests that supply shortages are yet to ease significantly, but it does at least echo anecdotal reports that they are no longer getting worse.

1 December 2021

US Economics Weekly

Powell gets the nod; GDP growth rebounding

The announcement on Monday morning that President Biden would nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed Chair was largely as expected, although the unexplained delays in making it official may have persuaded some in the markets that Biden was leaning toward picking Lael Brainard instead. As far as monetary policy goes, Powell and Brainard hold very similar, largely dovish, views. Elsewhere, as a result of the flurry of economic data releases ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday we have raised our fourth-quarter GDP growth forecast to 6.5% annualised, from 4.0%.

24 November 2021

US Data Response

Durable Goods, Adv. Trade (Oct.), GDP (Q3 2nd Est.)

The 0.5% fall in durable goods orders was not as bad as it looked, given that it was entirely due to a fall in volatile aircraft orders. But the bigger news this morning was the huge 10.7% m/m surge in exports in October, which is why we now estimate that GDP growth will accelerate from 2.1% annualised in the third quarter to more than 5% in the fourth, well above our previous forecast of a rise to 4%.

24 November 2021

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US Data Response

Employment Report (Sep.)

The disappointing 194,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September probably still counts as “decent” enough for the Fed to begin tapering its asset purchases next month. But alongside signs that activity growth is slowing sharply, at the same time as worsening labour shortages are putting serious upward pressure on wage growth, the report looks set to leave Fed officials in an uncomfortable position.

8 October 2021

US Economics Update

Debt ceiling deal may only delay the inevitable

The entrenched positions of both sides suggest the deal to suspend the debt ceiling until December may only delay rather than avert a crisis. And in that scenario, we doubt that the Treasury minting a $1trn platinum coin would offer the easy way out.

7 October 2021

US Data Response

US International Trade (Aug.)

We expect that the widening in the trade deficit to $73.3bn in August, from $70.3bn, will soon start to reverse, as exports catch up with imports. But there is a risk over the coming months that worsening supply chain disruptions weigh on trade in both directions.

5 October 2021
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