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How low can the natural rate of unemployment go?

A continued decline in the natural rate of unemployment over the past 15 years means that there is probably a little bit more slack in the labour market than indicated by the near-record low unemployment rate. As a result, wage growth is unlikely to accelerate further unless there is a further drop in the unemployment rate. The flipside, though, is that employment growth can be sustained, ensuring that household income growth continues to support consumption.

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