Recent data have brought more concrete signs that uncertainty ahead of the EU referendum on 23rd June is starting to weigh on the economy. GDP in Q1 grew by a modest 0.4% on the quarter and the Markit/CIPS surveys point to a further slowdown in Q2. Meanwhile, unemployment rose in the latest data. However, not all of the slowdown can be attributed toBrexit fears. The jitter in financial markets and global growth worries at the start of the year (which have since abated) were to blame too, while the labour market data can be volatile. Of course, referendum uncertainty may weigh more heavily on the economy as the vote gets even closer. But if the UK votes to stay, as bookmakers’ odds suggest, then the economy should bounce back in the second half of the year.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services