My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jan.)

The third consecutive decline in the composite PMI indicates that the Omicron variant weighed further on activity in January. But the recent fall in COVID-19 cases, relaxation of restrictions and signs of easing supply shortages suggest the economy will recover quickly. And, given signs of accelerating price pressures, we still expect the Bank of England to hike interest rates a week on Thursday. Drop-In (14:00 GMT, 26th Jan): UK Outlook -- More inflation, more interest rate hikes. Join our UK Economics team for a briefing on the 2022 outlook, including why we’re below consensus on growth but think the BoE will raise rates more than most expect. Register here.  
Adam Hoyes Assistant Economist
Continue reading

More from UK

UK Data Response

S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (May)

The flash PMI survey for May suggests that economic growth has slowed to a crawl and that the risk of a recession has not gone away. Even so, weakness in the economy doesn’t seem to be filtering into an easing of price pressures. As a result, we think that interest rates still have much further to rise, from 1.00% now to 3.00% in 2023. ECB Drop-In (24th May 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Could the ECB deliver a hawkish surprise? Join economists from our Europe and Markets teams for a discussion about what to expect from the Bank’s tightening cycle, including the chances for a bumper hike in July or even an early move at next month’s meeting. Register now.

24 May 2022

UK Data Response

Public Finances (Apr.)

The economic wind that has recently been blowing the public finances to undershoot forecasts adds more pressure on the Chancellor to launch in the coming weeks a big package of measures to help households cope with the cost of living crisis. But as the economic wind is already showing signs of becoming less favourable for the public finances, we think the support package is more likely to be small and targeted. ECB Drop-In (24th May 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Could the ECB deliver a hawkish surprise? Join economists from our Europe and Markets teams for a discussion about what to expect from the Bank’s tightening cycle, including the chances for a bumper hike in July or even an early move at next month’s meeting. Register now.

24 May 2022

UK Economics Weekly

Inflation to rise further and linger longer than in the US and EZ

Not only did the surge in CPI inflation to 9.0% in April leave inflation in the UK above the rates in both the US and the euro-zone, but inflation in the UK will probably rise further and stay higher for longer. That feeds into our forecast that the Bank of England will have to raise rates further than it expects, from 1.00% now to 3.00%. ECB Drop-In (24th May 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Could the ECB deliver a hawkish surprise? Join economists from our Europe and Markets teams for a discussion about what to expect from the Bank’s tightening cycle, including the chances for a bumper hike in July or even an early move at next month’s meeting. Register now.

20 May 2022

More from Adam Hoyes

UK Economics Update

Real wage squeeze unlikely to be a rerun of 2008-14

The looming squeeze on real wages means that the near-term outlook for consumption and GDP has weakened. That said, we don’t expect anything as bad as the squeeze in 2008-14. In fact, real household disposable income may well recover by early 2023.

20 January 2022

UK Economics Update

A catch-up on COVID

Given the huge surge in cases throughout December, the COVID-19 situation is once again set to be the biggest determinant of the performance of the economy over the first few months of 2022. We aren’t factoring in any additional UK-wide restrictions, but we still expect increased consumer caution and self-isolations to weigh on economic activity in the first quarter.

5 January 2022

UK Data Response

IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Dec.)

The fall in the composite PMI in December doesn’t come as much of a surprise given the surge in cases of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. But it was much bigger than expected, and shows that caution among businesses and consumers is starting to weigh on activity. It also shows the downside risks to our GDP forecast are growing, supporting our view that the Bank of England will leave rates on hold today. Note: Central Bank Drop-In – The Fed, ECB and BoE are just some of the key central bank decisions expected in this packed week of meetings. Neil Shearing and a special panel of our chief economists will sift through the outcomes on Thursday, 16th December at 11:00 ET/16:00 GMT and discuss the monetary policy outlook for 2022.

16 December 2021
↑ Back to top