Riksbank happy to bide its time next week

The Riksbank is all but certain to leave its repo rate on hold next Tuesday (27th April), and will stick to the plan to spend the entire SEK 700 billion asset purchase envelope by the end of the year. The stage is set for a prolonged period of policy stasis.
David Oxley Senior Europe Economist
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Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

No inflation scare in Scandinavia or Switzerland…

If there is a global inflation scare, the Scandinavians are yet to get the memo. In a week when we learnt that core inflation hit a 28-year high in the US in May, we also learnt that the core inflation rate fell to very low levels in both Norway and Sweden. Nonetheless, with the Norges Bank is likely to be the first major advanced-economy central bank to raise interest rates we will be hosting a twenty-minute “drop in” on the outlook for Norway after next Thursday’s Norges Bank meeting – you can register for it here.

11 June 2021

Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch

Two banks, heading in different directions

We expect both the Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank to leave interest rates on hold next Thursday. But while rate hikes by the SNB are many years away, a tightening cycle in Norway is edging closer.

11 June 2021

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Norway & Sweden Consumer Prices (May)

Inflation in Norway and Sweden was lower than expected in May, with core inflation falling in both economies. This will reassure Sweden’s Riksbank that it can keep its policy rate on hold, but we still think that the Norges Bank, which is worried about rising house prices, will start raising interest rates in Q3.

10 June 2021

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Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Switzerland GDP (Q1 2021) & PMIs (May)

Data released this morning confirmed that the Swiss economy started 2021 on the back foot following a tightening in virus-related restrictions. However, activity will have gathered pace in Q2.

1 June 2021

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Swiss seven-year itch; lots to ponder at the Riksbank

The breakdown of the Swiss/EU Treaty talks has taken the headlines this week, but the Swiss economy appears to be galloping ahead in any case. While the belated release of Q1 GDP data next week is likely to show that output contracted as virus restrictions bit, business surveys suggest that the economy got into its stride in Q2 and the upside risks to our 2021 forecasts are building. Meanwhile, the releases of the PMIs from May next week are likely to show that industrial sectors remained in rude health.

28 May 2021

Nordic & Swiss Economics Update

Switzerland waves Auf Wiederloge to a new EU Treaty

While the breakdown in Treaty talks between Switzerland and the EU makes the outlook for Swiss exporters more uncertain, we doubt that the lasting economic impact will be very big.

27 May 2021
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