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Fundamentals, not regulation, to drive iron ore lower

While China’s announcement that it will crack down on speculation and market irregularities has taken some of the froth out of the iron ore market in recent weeks, we think the price of iron ore will ultimately be driven even lower by less favourable fundamentals over the rest of the year.
Adam Hoyes Assistant Economist
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Metals Data Response

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Global steel production continued to pick up in May, led by higher output in India and China, which more than offset the ongoing decline in Europe’s production. The rise in input costs, efforts to curb carbon emissions and softer demand suggest that there will be only limited gains in global steel output this year.

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Metals Data Response

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Global aluminium production has increased steadily since the start of the year in large part owing to a rebound in China’s output. At the same time, demand is relatively subdued, which suggests that aluminium prices have further to fall in the second half of the year. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now

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Industrial Metals Update

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Robust Chinese refined metal output, alongside subdued domestic demand, has combined with constrained refined output elsewhere to provide greater export opportunities for China. But there are limits on the extent to which Chinese metal can fill the shortfall elsewhere. This is one reason why we expect industrial metals prices to remain historically high for some time yet. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now

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More from Adam Hoyes

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Energy Data Response

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Oil demand to rise, but it won’t stop prices falling

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17 June 2021
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