Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impact The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update US import tariffs: your questions answered We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Peak oil debate slightly misses the point The focus in oil markets this week was on the long term with the IEA predicting that oil demand will peak in 2029 while OPEC argued there is no peak in sight. In any case, when the peak occurs is only... 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Reading the OPEC+ tea leaves: rollover is on the cards The decision by OPEC+ to move its crunch meeting from in-person on Saturday in Vienna to online on Sunday, historically a sign of an uneventful meeting, suggests that members will rollover production... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Copper price upsurge will not be sustained The surge in copper prices today, to a record high of over $5/lb in trading on the New York commodities exchange (COMEX), is the latest twist in the eye-popping market rally and leaves prices looking... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of... 15th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Update Battery imports to bear the brunt of new US tariffs The impact of the US tariffs announced today will barely register on the paltry flows of solar panels and electric vehicles that China directly exports to the US. However, the new tariffs could have a... 14th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc on the brink of a price fall The surplus in the zinc market will shrink a little this year, as recovering raw material supply and a pick-up in refined output is offset by a boost to demand from a cyclical recovery in China. That... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to solid but unremarkable demand China’s PMI surveys for April suggest the economy continues to grow at a faster pace than a few months ago which is providing support for commodity demand. Today’s Politburo statement signalled that... 30th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Metals prices: a genuine breakout or overoptimism? In a mixed week for commodity prices, copper topped $10,000 per tonne for the first time since April 2022. This is the latest in what has been a rip-roaring start to the year for non-ferrous... 26th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Further falls in store for iron ore amid falling demand This year’s falls in iron ore prices are likely to have been a dress rehearsal for what's ahead. Our China team’s forecast for the property sector to halve by the end of the decade does not bode well... 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
