My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.)

The recent slump in wage growth reflects sampling changes as well as falling working hours. Given the current level of the unemployment rate, wages should be growing by around 1% and we expect a rebound in working hours to provide a tailwind over coming months. But as economic activity remains weak and the labour market slackens, we expect wage growth to keep falling short of last year’s strong gains.
Continue reading

More from Japan

Japan Economics Weekly

Respite for BoJ doesn’t weaken case for a policy tweak

Pressure on the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control framework eased this week. On the campaign trail for the Upper House election, where inflation has emerged as a key concern, Prime Minister Kishida said that monetary tightening would do more harm than good. Even more welcome for the BoJ, pressure emanating from the bond market has dropped back too. It had to buy less than a tenth as many JGBs this week as last. Some might feel that this reduces the need to shore up the policy framework. But a respite provides a window in which to make it more resilient.
Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

24 June 2022

Japan Data Response

Japan Consumer Prices (May 2022)

While inflation didn’t rise any further in May, it will remain above the BoJ’s 2% target until early-2023, while underlying inflation will approach 2%. However, the Bank won’t respond with tighter policy. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

24 June 2022

Japan Data Response

Japan Flash PMIs (Jun. 2022)

The PMIs suggest that supply shortages are still holding back manufacturing output and adding to price pressures. On a more upbeat note, the surveys also point to a strong pick-up in consumption as the economy rebounds from the Omicron wave and international tourists return. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

23 June 2022

More from Capital Economics Economist

Japan Data Response

External Trade (May)

The wider trade deficit in May was a result of a sharp fall in exports and a slight fall in imports. Although export volumes are unlikely to be as weak as they were in the last quarter, a likely rebound in import volumes means that net trade should turn into a drag on GDP growth in Q2.

19 June 2019

Emerging Asia Economics Update

What would US rate cuts mean for Asia?

Expectations that the US will soon start to cut interest rates have provided a boost to Asian currencies in recent weeks. But if we are right that slowing growth in the US and the escalating trade war will cause investors to become more risk averse, Asian currencies are likely to come under renewed downward pressure. The prospect of further falls in the rupiah is the key reason why we don’t think Bank Indonesia will follow other central banks in the region in cutting interest rates this year.

18 June 2019

Emerging Asia Data Response

Philippines Current Account (Q1), Remittances (Apr.)

The current account deficit of the Philippines widened again last quarter and is likely to remain a key source of vulnerability over the coming year.

17 June 2019
↑ Back to top