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Japan Flash PMIs (Aug. 2021)

Today’s flash PMIs suggest that the worsening Delta outbreak may yet result in a fall in consumption this quarter. And with supply shortages intensifying, the manufacturing sector isn’t stepping into the breach.
Marcel Thieliant Senior Japan, Australia & New Zealand Economist
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Japan Economics Weekly

Respite for BoJ doesn’t weaken case for a policy tweak

Pressure on the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control framework eased this week. On the campaign trail for the Upper House election, where inflation has emerged as a key concern, Prime Minister Kishida said that monetary tightening would do more harm than good. Even more welcome for the BoJ, pressure emanating from the bond market has dropped back too. It had to buy less than a tenth as many JGBs this week as last. Some might feel that this reduces the need to shore up the policy framework. But a respite provides a window in which to make it more resilient.
Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

24 June 2022

Japan Data Response

Japan Consumer Prices (May 2022)

While inflation didn’t rise any further in May, it will remain above the BoJ’s 2% target until early-2023, while underlying inflation will approach 2%. However, the Bank won’t respond with tighter policy. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

24 June 2022

Japan Data Response

Japan Flash PMIs (Jun. 2022)

The PMIs suggest that supply shortages are still holding back manufacturing output and adding to price pressures. On a more upbeat note, the surveys also point to a strong pick-up in consumption as the economy rebounds from the Omicron wave and international tourists return. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

23 June 2022

More from Marcel Thieliant

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q2)

The subdued 0.4% q/q rise in the wage price index in Q2 underlines that the tight labour market didn’t generate large cost pressures even before the latest virus restrictions.

18 August 2021

Japan Data Response

Japan External Trade (Jul. 2021)

Japan’s export volumes stagnated in July but given that a large share of those exports are cars and capital goods, we think they will rise again over the coming months.

18 August 2021

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA may be too pessimistic about price pressures

The Reserve Bank of Australia signalled today that it’s unlikely to reverse the tapering of its bond purchases even as Sydney’s virus outbreak is getting worse. We still expect the tight labour market to deliver stronger wage growth and inflation than the Bank is anticipating, prompting the Bank to tighten earlier than its current guidance of 2024.

6 August 2021
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