Much of the coverage of this week's Q2 GDP release highlighted the record y/y growth rate, but that was due to the slump last year rather than recent economic strength. We estimate that GDP dropped by 12% q/q in seasonally-adjusted terms. That large fall in GDP means there is more scope for the economy to have rebounded sharply in Q3. But taken as a whole, we've revised down our annual growth forecast for 2021 to 8%.
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