Among the flurry of central bank announcements, the continued plunge in equity markets, and wild gyrations across core government bond markets, currencies have been pulled in several directions this week. While the US dollar is ending the week only a little stronger against most major currencies, it is close to its strongest level since 2002 and our view is it will rise further over the second half of the year as global growth continues to struggle and the Fed keeps outgunning other central banks in the race to bring inflation back to target. Indeed, given the worsening outlook for “risky” assets generally, we are reviewing our forecasts for a range of G10 and EM currencies and will publish revised forecasts next week, which we will also discuss during a Drop-In on Wednesday (register here).
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