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OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jan.)

OPEC continued to raise output by less than its target in December. However, the group is still steadily raising output, which is a key reason why we see the market moving into a surplus this year.
Caroline Bain Chief Commodities Economist
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Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Commercial crude oil stocks fell last week due to exports rising faster than imports and refineries stepping up operations. But high petroleum product prices should hold back demand in the coming months, which, along with further Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, should send commercial stocks upward.

18 May 2022

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Commercial crude stocks will be boosted in the coming weeks by the ongoing release of strategic reserves, regardless of what is happening with domestic oil demand. That said, there are now clear signs that sky-high prices are deterring demand for petroleum products, which should continue for some time yet.

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OPEC Watch

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OPEC lowered its forecast for Russia’s oil production this year, but still expects it to rise. By contrast, we think Russia’s output will fall and see rising pressure on OPEC to step up output in response.

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More from Caroline Bain

Commodities Weekly Wrap

A good start to a bad year for commodity prices

Most commodity prices increased this week, with coal prices leading the pack on the back of Indonesia’s ban on coal exports this month. That said, we don’t see commodity prices rising for much longer. Indeed, Chinese imports of most raw materials fell back in December, with an especially sharp decline in imports of industrial metals. We think this is a sign of things to come in 2022. Weaker Chinese growth is one of the main reasons why we expect most prices to fall this year. Looking ahead, prices of energy and energy-intensive commodities could well be swayed by tensions between Russia and Ukraine and its allies. If tensions continue to build, this could lead to sharp swings in the price of European natural gas in particular. High gas prices in Europe have already led to the curbing of some energy-intensive metals production, including aluminium and zinc. On the data front, China will release Q4 GDP figures on Monday, which we expect to show weaker y/y growth. OPEC will also publish its December oil supply numbers on Tuesday. We expect another month of below-target output.

14 January 2022

Commodities Update

Prices to come off the boil in 2022

After a stellar run in 2020-21, we expect the prices of most commodities to ease back this year as economic activity slows, notably in China, and supply bottlenecks start to ease. Drop-In: Neil Shearing will host an online panel of our senior economists to answer your questions and update on macro and markets this Thursday, 13th January (11:00 ET/16:00 GMT). Register for the latest on everything from Omicron to the Fed to our key calls for 2022. Registration here.

13 January 2022

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Commercial crude oil stocks fell, but this reflected solid demand from refineries. Implied product demand – particularly for gasoline – slumped, suggesting that the public were cautious about travel in the wake of surging cases of the Omicron variant. These fears are likely to persist for a few weeks yet.

5 January 2022
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