EU oil embargo to hit Russia’s oil exports hard

The EU proposal to end imports of Russian crude oil and petroleum products by the end of the year has long been in the works. If approved, we expect Russia’s oil exports to fall by around 20% this year, which in turn would keep oil prices over $100 per barrel. But unless natural gas prices plunge and/or there are secondary sanctions on Russian oil, this won’t cause major pain for Russia’s economy immediately. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Energy Update to clients of our Emerging Europe Service.