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Russia and Turkey to drive pick-up in growth

Regional GDP growth is likely to gather pace this year as loose monetary and fiscal policy bolsters recoveries in Russia and Turkey and helps to cushion the slowdown in Central Europe. Interest rates will probably end this year lower than markets are pricing in across much of the region. But we are firmly non-consensus in forecasting that Turkey’s central bank will have to reverse course and hike interest rates towards the end of the year, resulting in slower growth in 2021.

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