Deglobalisation to continue despite Biden victory

Joe Biden is likely to take a different approach to trade relations than Donald Trump, but his election will not reinvigorate globalisation, which has stalled over recent years. This will act as a headwind for the region’s poorer economies.
Gareth Leather Senior Asia Economist
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Emerging Asia Economics Update

Pakistan: further rate hikes likely

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today raised interest rates by 25bp and made clear further tightening is likely as the central bank shifts its focus away from supporting the recovery and towards boosting the currency. We expect more rate hikes over the coming months.

20 September 2021

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Two non-consensus calls on monetary policy

There are four major monetary policy meetings scheduled in the region next week. While we expect the central banks of Indonesia and Taiwan to leave rates unchanged, we are pencilling in a hike by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and a cut by Bangko Sentral Philipinas (BSP).

17 September 2021

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Can Sri Lanka avoid default?

Falling foreign exchange reserves, a declining currency and a high level of foreign currency debt mean the risk of a sovereign default in Sri Lanka is growing. While the country should be able to muddle through for the next few months, it faces a crunch point early next year when more bond repayments are due. A default is now looking the most likely option.

16 September 2021

More from Gareth Leather

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Thailand’s reopening, exports soften

Thailand’s tourism sector will remain heavily depressed despite this week’s reopening of Phuket to foreign tourists. Meanwhile, the latest data provide more evidence that export demand has started to level off.

We are holding a Drop-In online briefing on Tuesday at 1500 HKT/0800 BST to explain our Korean rate outlook, including the latest on the domestic recovery but also how external demand conditions could influence policy thinking. Register here.

2 July 2021

Emerging Asia Chart Book

Virus disruption to continue

The virus situation in Emerging Asia has improved compared with a month ago. Although cases are rising sharply in Indonesia, daily numbers have come down in Taiwan, Singapore, India and Malaysia, and appear to have stabilised in the Philippines. That said, the situation remains serious. The more contagious Delta variant now appears prevalent across the region, which suggests countries will need to be cautious about how quickly they loosen restrictions. And while vaccine rollouts have gathered pace in a number of countries, it is only in Singapore, China, Hong Kong and Cambodia where more than 10% of the population is fully vaccinated. The upshot is that whereas life appears to be returning to normal in the US and most of Europe, COVID-19 will continue to cause significant economic disruption throughout this year across large parts of Emerging Asia.

30 June 2021

Emerging Asia Data Response

Vietnam GDP (Q2)

Looking past the jump in y/y growth due to a weak base for comparison, GDP data suggest that Vietnam is facing a heavy economic toll from its efforts to control the virus. With sporadic outbreaks continuing, the economy is likely to suffer further in the months ahead.

29 June 2021
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