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Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (Apr.)

Regional Manufacturing PMIs point to a further worsening of industry conditions, chiming with Korean trade data which suggest a major softening of external demand. Both reinforce the view that headwinds to Asia’s export-focussed industry are mounting and that there are tougher times ahead. EM Drop-In (5th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): Join Shilan Shah for our latest monthly session on the big macro and markets stories in EMs. This month, Shilan and the team will be talking Russian gas, FX weakness and surging food prices. Register now
Alex Holmes Emerging Asia Economist
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Emerging Asia Economics Update

Thailand: gradual tightening cycle ahead

The Bank of Thailand hiked interest rates today by 25bp (to 0.75%), but reiterated that the tightening cycle will be gradual. We are sticking with our view that the policy rate will peak at 1.5% next year.

10 August 2022

Emerging Asia Data Response

Philippines GDP (Q2)

Economic growth in the Philippines unexpectedly slowed in Q2 and we expect growth to remain subdued in the second half of 2022 as high commodity prices, rising interest rates and weaker global demand drag on the economy.

9 August 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

How much does Taiwan matter?

Taiwan matters far more to the world economy than its 1% share of global GDP would A further escalation in cross-strait tensions that cut Taiwan’s export off from the rest of the world would lead to renewed shortages in the automotive and electronics sectors and put further upward pressure on inflation. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Emerging Asia Economics Update to clients of our Global Economics Service.  

8 August 2022

More from Alex Holmes

Emerging Asia Data Response

Korea GDP (Q1, provisional)

A rebound is already underway following the economic hit from Omicron, which today’s provisional Q1 GDP figures show was relatively mild. But, after an initial pick up in Q2, we expect the recovery to slow as headwinds to growth mount. That should see the central bank turn less hawkish later in the year.

26 April 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

BoK resumes tightening cycle, more hikes to come.

Today’s decision by the Bank of Korea (BoK) to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 1.50% is unlikely to mark the end of its tightening cycle given the strength of inflationary pressures. We expect at least two more 25bp rate hikes in the coming quarters, taking the policy rate to 2.00% by end-2022.

14 April 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

MAS tightening and strong economy will support SGD

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) tightened monetary policy again at its meeting today. With growth set to remain strong and core inflation likely to stay elevated, we expect the MAS to maintain its tight policy stance for at least the next couple of years. As such, the Singapore dollar is set for an extended period of appreciation, including against a strong US dollar.

14 April 2022
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