Jackson Hole, tapering, and the risk of higher Treasury yields

We doubt that a hint at this week’s Jackson Hole symposium that the Fed may soon wind down its bond purchases would spark a sell-off in US Treasuries as dramatic as 2013’s “taper tantrum”. However, we still think that the risks are skewed towards yields rising over the next couple of years.
Oliver Allen Markets Economist
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Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this publication are as of 20th August 2021. A more detailed explanation of our views can be found in our annual Long Run Economic Outlook and Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook.

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