Outlook for Treasuries still a threat to US equities

Today’s US Employment Report has failed to awaken the Treasury market from its slumber this quarter. We think, however, that long-dated yields will rise again in due course after their surge earlier in 2021.
John Higgins Chief Markets Economist
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Asset Allocation Update

The darkening relative prospects for China’s equities

Although there has been a little relief for China’s equities today, we still suspect that they will deliver lower returns than equities in other major markets over the next two years. If anything, we think that the case for them to underperform is even stronger now than when we set it out a few months ago.

29 July 2021

Asset Allocation Outlook

Tempering our optimism

We no longer expect equities and corporate bonds to outperform “safe” government bonds by anything like as much as we did a couple of quarters ago, and we continue to forecast that some other “risky” assets, including most commodities, will struggle over the next couple of years.

21 July 2021

Asset Allocation Update

Outlook for risky assets looking less positive

The near-term outlook for risky assets appears much less favourable to us now than it did just a few months ago, for three key reasons.

15 July 2021

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Asset Allocation Update

What’s behind renewed US equity outperformance?

It has become harder to make the case that the stock market in the US will fare worse than those in the rest of the developed world, now that the “rotation” trade has fizzled out. Nonetheless, we still think there are other reasons to expect the relentless outperformance of US equities to end.

7 July 2021

Asset Allocation Update

Would US equities beat Treasuries if inflation surged?

The received wisdom is that inflation is worse for government bonds than for equities. Yet the S&P 500 has fared worse than 10-year Treasuries in a couple of periods of high inflation in the US since the 1960s.

1 July 2021

Capital Daily

Consumer confidence and the US stock market

We do not think that the surge in the Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence in June is a reason to be positive about the outlook for the US stock market.

30 June 2021
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