Vaccines and variants in SSA, post-unrest fallout in SA

A boost to vaccine supplies in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to breathe some fresh air into struggling vaccine campaigns across the region at a time when third waves are sweeping across key economies. Meanwhile, although unrest in South Africa has fizzled out in the past week, there are early signs that it will leave a lasting economic effect
Virag Forizs Emerging Markets Economist
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Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.)

The surprise rise in inflation in Nigeria, to 15.6% y/y in December, will more likely than not prove to be a blip. We don’t think that policymakers will rush to raise interest rates in response.

17 January 2022

Africa Economics Weekly

ANC leadership contest, Ghana’s debt, Ethiopia’s conflict

Leftist factions of South Africa’s ruling ANC already appear to be gearing up to take on President Cyril Ramaphosa in December’s leadership election and this is likely to push fiscal policy in a looser direction, worsening the country’s debt problems. Debt concerns are also building in Ghana and remain elevated in Ethiopia as well, even though there are signs that the internal conflict is abating.

14 January 2022

Africa Economics Update

What to expect in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2022

Sub-Saharan Africa will remain a laggard in the global recovery. The weak economic backdrop means that South Africa’s government is unlikely to stick to its austerity plans and the debt ratio will rise more quickly than most anticipate. Debt risks are also likely to build in other parts of the region. Meanwhile, Nigerian officials will probably double down on their unorthodox policies. Drop-In: Neil Shearing will host an online panel of our senior economists to answer your questions and update on macro and markets this Thursday, 13th January (11:00 ET/16:00 GMT). Register for the latest on everything from Omicron to the Fed to our key calls for 2022. Registration here.

12 January 2022

More from Virag Forizs

Africa Economics Update

Dovish SARB to keep rates low for some time

Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today and the dovish tone of the communications supports our view that interest rates won’t rise until the middle of next year.

22 July 2021

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.)

South Africa’s headline inflation rate eased in June, to 4.9% y/y, and with soft underlying price pressures and clouds over the economic recovery, the Reserve Bank will stand pat at tomorrow’s MPC meeting. Indeed, we think the repo rate will remain unchanged well into next year.

21 July 2021

Africa Economics Update

South Africa’s unrest: the fallout for the public finances

The disruption to economic activity from the unrest and violence in South Africa, which now appears to be dissipating, will probably prove to be limited, but the impact on the public finances is likely to be more significant. In particular, there is a rising likelihood that the authorities scale back their fiscal consolidation plans, which would leave the public debt ratio on a worrying upwards trajectory.

16 July 2021
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