Vaccines and variants in SSA, post-unrest fallout in SA

A boost to vaccine supplies in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to breathe some fresh air into struggling vaccine campaigns across the region at a time when third waves are sweeping across key economies. Meanwhile, although unrest in South Africa has fizzled out in the past week, there are early signs that it will leave a lasting economic effect
Virag Forizs Emerging Markets Economist
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Africa Economics Weekly

Vaccine tides turning in SSA? Evergrande reverberations

This week brought the prospect of an improvement in Sub-Saharan Africa’s vaccine supplies, but the region is still likely to struggle to catch up with the rest of the world in the global vaccination race. Meanwhile, although we expect the fallout from the Evergrande saga to be limited, the region’s metal producers like South Africa are exposed to weakness in China’s property sector. Finally, there has been some momentum towards a debt restructuring deal for Ethiopia, but this will probably be difficult to thrash out.

24 September 2021

Africa Economics Update

SARB to keep loose policy stance to bolster recovery

Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today and concerns about lasting economic damage from the pandemic and recent unrest appear to be growing. Against a backdrop of a sluggish recovery and weak inflation, we think the repo rate will stay on hold until well into 2022.

23 September 2021

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.)

South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 4.9% y/y in August but the temporary factors behind the rise are unlikely to worry policymakers. Subdued core price pressures and the slow economic recovery mean that we expect the Reserve Bank to keep rates on hold on Thursday and well into 2022.

22 September 2021

More from Virag Forizs

Africa Economics Update

Dovish SARB to keep rates low for some time

Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today and the dovish tone of the communications supports our view that interest rates won’t rise until the middle of next year.

22 July 2021

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.)

South Africa’s headline inflation rate eased in June, to 4.9% y/y, and with soft underlying price pressures and clouds over the economic recovery, the Reserve Bank will stand pat at tomorrow’s MPC meeting. Indeed, we think the repo rate will remain unchanged well into next year.

21 July 2021

Africa Economics Update

South Africa’s unrest: the fallout for the public finances

The disruption to economic activity from the unrest and violence in South Africa, which now appears to be dissipating, will probably prove to be limited, but the impact on the public finances is likely to be more significant. In particular, there is a rising likelihood that the authorities scale back their fiscal consolidation plans, which would leave the public debt ratio on a worrying upwards trajectory.

16 July 2021
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