Assessing the damage to tourism sectors in Africa

Tourism sectors across Africa, like much of the rest of the world, are at a standstill and any recovery is likely to be slow going. Even if travel restrictions are lifted international tourists are unlikely to return this year, and a big hit to incomes will also put domestic tourism on hold. Overall, we expect the direct hit to knock 2-4% from GDP across the region this year.
Olivia Cross Research Assistant
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Africa Economics Weekly

Lockdown lessons from SA, influx of jabs and cash?

South African policymakers appear to be reluctant to impose restrictions in the face of the threat from the Omicron variant, but their hand could be forced if the health system comes under strain. In previous waves, measures have been tightened when hospitalisations have breached 5,000. While we’re some way off that, the figures are on an upwards path. Meanwhile, ambitious pledges by Africa’s key development partners including China and the EU on vaccines and infrastructure investment will lift the region’s longer-term economic prospects. Finally, even with the IMF on board, restoring Zambia’s debt sustainability will remain challenging.

3 December 2021

Africa Economics Update

Debt sustainability in Zambia: mission impossible?

Zambia’s new administration has made encouraging noises about restoring macroeconomic stability and addressing the country’s public debt problem. But it will be a tall order to secure a large restructuring and stick to the fiscal consolidation that will be needed to leave the public debt ratio on an even keel.

2 December 2021

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rebounded last month, but the emerging fourth virus wave and the threat from the Omicron variant has clouded the outlook for activity in the sector and the wider economy.

1 December 2021

More from Olivia Cross

Latin America Economics Update

What Mexico’s current account means for the peso

We expect that Mexico’s current account deficit will narrow, and could even turn to a small surplus, over the rest of the year as a strong goods surplus outweighs weaker remittance inflows. That should help the currency to strengthen over the rest of the year – our end-2020 forecast is 21.5/$ (from 22.3/$ now).

13 August 2020

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Assessing the fallout from the tourist slump

Borders are slowly re-opening across Emerging Europe, but international tourists are unlikely to return to the region in significant numbers for the key summer season. Romania and Russia are the least vulnerable and efforts to promote domestic tourism should soften the blow in Central Europe. But the loss of tourism will weigh on the recovery in Turkey and provide a significant hit to GDP in Croatia and the Baltic States.

7 July 2020
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