The Chief Economist’s Note

Policymakers still have ammunition – but will they use it?

Posted by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

Do policymakers have sufficient ammunition to fight the next economic downturn? It’s a question that’s vexing economists – and at first sight the answer appears to be “no”. After all, on the fiscal side, public debt ratios in most developed economies are still well above their pre-2008 levels and in some cases (notably the US) … Continue reading “Policymakers still have ammunition – but will they use it?”

If you only watch one chart, make sure it’s this one

Posted by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

Will the recent weakness in a broad swathe of economic data be a flash in the pan or does it herald the start of a new global downturn? The answer is likely to depend in part on what happens to financial conditions. Financial conditions is a somewhat esoteric term to describe how the prices of … Continue reading “If you only watch one chart, make sure it’s this one”

Time for policymakers outside the US to step up to the plate

Posted by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

With concerns about the outlook for the global economy starting to build, thoughts are turning to what policymakers might do to support growth. A common refrain is that the current low level of real interest rates and high levels of public debt limit the room for conventional monetary and fiscal stimulus. That’s true but, as … Continue reading “Time for policymakers outside the US to step up to the plate”

As the data collapse, what might we be missing?

Posted by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

Annual gatherings, like those in Davos last week, tend to produce little in the way of meaningful policy shifts, but they can be a useful way of gauging the mood about the global economy. This year it was decidedly gloomy. The IMF grabbed the headlines by pulling down its forecast for global GDP growth in … Continue reading “As the data collapse, what might we be missing?”

The economic implications of the collapse in global oil prices

Posted by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

The sharp fall in oil prices over the past month or so has led to several questions about the implications for the global economy. We’ve written lots on this subject, including how central banks might respond and why the major oil producers are now better positioned to weather a fall in prices than they were … Continue reading “The economic implications of the collapse in global oil prices”

New Book

Making a Success of Brexit
and Reforming the EU

by Roger Bootle

"Outstanding - engaging - absorbing"
Daily Telegraph

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