The Chief Economist’s Note

The economic implications of the collapse in global oil prices

Posted by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

The sharp fall in oil prices over the past month or so has led to several questions about the implications for the global economy. We’ve written lots on this subject, including how central banks might respond and why the major oil producers are now better positioned to weather a fall in prices than they were … Continue reading “The economic implications of the collapse in global oil prices”

Distilling the gloomy news from Europe

Posted by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

The recent flow of both news and data from Europe has painted an increasingly gloomy picture and events this week are unlikely to provide much respite, with Italy’s government facing a deadline on Tuesday to submit a re-drafted budget to Brussels and then GDP data due on Wednesday likely to show that Germany’s economy barely … Continue reading “Distilling the gloomy news from Europe”

The economics of rising populism

Posted by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

Victory for Jair Bolsonaro in last weekend’s presidential election in Brazil has once again led to questions about the links between rising populism and economic growth. This is becoming well-trodden ground, which we’ve written about lots in the past. Mr Bolsonaro follows in the wake of Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines, Victor Orbán and Jarosław … Continue reading “The economics of rising populism”

The economics of Italy’s fiscal tightrope

Posted by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

Last week saw a further escalation in the standoff between the EU and Italy, with Brussels taking the unprecedented step of rejecting Rome’s budget plan for 2019. We’ve written about the simmering crisis in Italy at length, both from an economic and a market perspective. At the heart of the disagreement, however, is a deeper … Continue reading “The economics of Italy’s fiscal tightrope”

The real reason to worry about the US deficit

Posted by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

In a week of breathless headlines (Brexit, Italy and Brexit again…) last Monday’s news that the US budget deficit widened to a six-year high of $779bn in the fiscal year ending September 30th crept under the radar. As a share of GDP, the deficit is now running at 3.9%, up from 3.5% in 2017-18. The … Continue reading “The real reason to worry about the US deficit”

What will cause the next global downturn?

Posted by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

Hello. My name is Neil Shearing and I’m the Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics. This is the first edition of a new publication – the Chief Economist’s Note. It will be published every Monday and will reflect upon key developments in the global economy and what they mean for our clients. It will be … Continue reading “What will cause the next global downturn?”

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