Invitation-only Roundtable
The World in 2024
Recessions, Elections and Rates – New year, new risks
Tuesday 12th December
Will the major economies enter 2024 in or near recession as monetary tightening takes its full toll? Which central bank will respond first to mounting evidence of disinflation and cut interest rates? How much portfolio risk do you or your clients face as election cycles from Taiwan to the US ramp up?
A team of our senior economists were joined by our partners in Investment Management for this exclusive in-person briefing all about the spectrum of risks facing economies and markets in 2024. During this session, experts from across our Global, US, EM and Markets teams discussed the macro events fund managers should watch for in the coming year, and their implications for asset allocation.
The team took questions from the audience as they addressed key issues facing the year ahead, including:
- Macro risks: The outlook for growth, inflation and policy across major developed and emerging economies;
- Geopolitical risks: Against a backdrop of elevated global tensions, what investors should watch for in a busy year for elections;
- Market risks: Including what’s next for bond markets as tightening turns to easing but fiscal concerns persist.
Meet our speakers:
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Neil Shearing
Group Chief Economist
Neil Shearing is our Group Chief Economist. He has overall responsibility for managing our team of economists and leading our research, as well as developing the firm’s products and its relationship with clients. He is also a director of the company. Neil is the first point of contact for many clients and presents regularly on the global economic and financial market outlook. He is a well-known voice within the investment community and has written articles in the Financial Times and a number of other newspapers, as well as appearing regularly on TV and radio. Prior to becoming Group Chief Economist, Neil was our Chief Emerging Markets Economist, managing a team that won several awards for forecast accuracy. He also managed our New York office. Neil joined Capital Economics from HM Treasury where he worked as an Economic Adviser in various areas, including fiscal policy and global economics. He holds degrees in Economics from the University of York and the University of London and is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts.
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Jennifer McKeown
Chief Global Economist
Jennifer McKeown is Chief Global Economist at Capital Economics. She leads a team of economists producing research on global themes and works closely with economists across Capital Economics’ regional services to shape the global view and to draw out the key implications of our forecasts. She is an important point of contact for many clients and presents frequently on the global economic outlook in person and at online events, as well as appearing regularly on TV and radio. Prior to becoming Chief Global Economist, Jennifer was Chief Europe Economist at Capital Economics. She joined the company from the Bank of England, where she also specialised in the economics of the euro-zone. She holds an MSc in economics from University College London and a BA in economics from the University of East Anglia.
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John Higgins
Chief Markets Economist
John Higgins is Capital Economics’ Chief Markets Economist, with overall responsibility for our Capital Daily, Global Markets, Asset Allocation and FX Markets services. Prior to joining the company in 2008, he worked at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, where he was Senior Economist covering the euro area, and before that at Nomura International plc in London, where he was Head of Economic and Credit Research within the fixed income division. John is a graduate of the University of Exeter.
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Paul Dales
Chief UK Economist
Paul Dales is our Chief UK Economist, with overall responsibility for our UK Economics and UK Markets services. Paul joined Capital Economics soon after it was founded in 1999 and has previously been our Chief Australia & New Zealand Economist and Senior US Economist. In 2022, he led the team that was named UK Economics Forecaster of the Year by the Sunday Times. In 2016, the Australian Financial Review judged him to be Australia’s economist of the year as “he made all the right calls in a market that most chief economists found hard to read”. In 2011, he was named Bloomberg’s US house price forecaster of the year. And in 2010, he was part of the US team that was named Wall Street Journal US forecaster of the year. Paul regularly writes articles for the London Evening Standard and frequently appears on TV and radio. He holds degrees in Banking & Finance and Economics from Loughborough and London universities and the UK FSA recognised Securities Institute Diploma.
