With a smaller boost from mortgage rates on the cards, we now expect house prices in the year to Q4 to rise by 3.5% in 2026 (5.0% previously) and by 3.0% in 2027 (3.5% previously). What's more, tax rises of perhaps around £38bn in the Budget on the 26th November, including potentially on property, could further trim the recovery in housing activity and house price growth, particularly for the most expensive properties in the most expensive regions.