While the tax rises announced in the Budget pose a downside risk to our forecast for house prices to rise in the year to Q4 by 3.5% in 2026 and by 3.0% in 2027, our views that mortgage rates will continue to drift lower, from 4.1% in November perhaps to 3.9% next year, and wages will rise by a decent 3.5% in 2026, will support housing activity and prices. But the tax rise on expensive homes will be a keep the top end of the market relatively subdued. (Clients can explore and download all our UK housing forecasts in our UK Housing Data Dashboard.)