Although the recent soft patch in the housing market is coming to an end, the stuttering jobs market and softening outlook for wage growth mean house prices will probably rise by only 2.0% in the year to Q4 2025. But our view that Bank Rate will fall from 4.25% now to 3.00% next year, rather than to the low of 3.50% priced into the financial markets, implies a bigger decline in mortgage rates will allow prices in the year to Q4 to rise by an above-consensus 5.0% in 2026 and by 3.5% in 2027.