US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) Existing home sales experienced their largest drop in nine months in November, as October’s spike in mortgage rates fed through to sales. But mortgage rates have since dropped back and are likely to... 21st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Overall inflation pressures were stronger than anticipated in November and the 3-month annualised measures of CPI-trim and CPI-median both increased. This supports our view that the Bank of Canada... 21st December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov.) Single-family housing starts continued to fall in November as weak new home demand weighed on homebuilder confidence. We expect this to push starts down to a trough of 650,000 annualised in the coming... 20th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) Retail sales volumes are struggling for momentum and, with the services spending indicators also showing some weakness, household consumption may be heading for a second consecutive quarterly... 20th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Event The World in 2023 - What to Expect in Advanced and Emerging Economies 1673337600 Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown and colleagues from across our macro services held a special briefing on what to expect from major DMs and EMs in 2023.
US Commercial Property Outlook Total returns to turn negative in 2023, led by apartments The sharp rise in interest rates this year has prompted a price correction, which is now coming through in valuation-based indices. Combined with the mild recession we are forecasting for 2023, this... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Household net worth squeezed further One third of the rise in household net worth during the pandemic has now been reversed and the further fall in house prices in November points to another deterioration this quarter. Lower net worth... 16th December 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Markets not waiting for Fed to catch up with reality Despite the Fed’s continued hawkishness, the further softening in core inflation and weakness of the early activity data in November leave us more convinced that the FOMC will be cutting interest... 16th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the latest central bank bonanza The last round of major central bank meetings for the year has proven an eventful one, with some surprising messages sending financial markets into another policymaker-induced convulsion. Three key... 15th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Dec.) New listings fell in November but, because they are taking longer to sell, the inventory of homes for sale continued to rise. That is one reason to expect house prices to fall further, particularly if... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Nov.) The 0.6% m/m falls in retail sales and manufacturing output in November suggest that the economy has lost some serious momentum, with the resilience of consumers to much higher interest rates starting... 15th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update The World in 2023: Property prices to plunge Property markets rebounded strongly after 2020, in part boosted by favourable structural shifts brought on by the pandemic. But they have hit the buffers in recent months. And fortunes are likely to... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update The Fed strikes back Despite the increasingly compelling evidence that core inflation will fall sharply next year, the Fed doubled down on its hawkishness today. We now expect two 25bp hikes from the Fed next year, with... 14th December 2022 · 3 mins read
