Capital Daily Dollar rebound may set the tone for early 2023 After struggling in the last quarter of 2022, the US dollar has started the new year with a bang. We think the greenback’s rebound has further to run over the coming months. 3rd January 2023 · 6 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth slowing more markedly We estimate that employment growth slowed more sharply in December, with non-farm payrolls rising by 160,000. The unemployment rate probably edged up to an 11-month high of 3.8%. 3rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Southern lead to narrow We now expect a small fall in rents next year in a handful of metros as affordability constraints and falling employment take their toll on demand. At the same time, a wave of completions in some of... 29th December 2022 · 12 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Nov.) New home sales increased for the second month in a row in November. That is at odds with other measures of market activity, which have fallen sharply in response to the jump in mortgage rates. We... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly 2023: recession, disinflation… and debt ceiling crisis? This week brought further signs of slowing activity growth and falling inflation, trends we expect to intensify next year. Meanwhile, Congress has averted a government shutdown, but there appears to... 23rd December 2022 · 10 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong services inflation keeps pressure on the Bank The November CPI data were a mixed bag, with deflationary pressure on goods starting to feed through but strong price rises for several key services. The 3-month annualised measures of core inflation... 23rd December 2022 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Atlanta, Dallas top the rankings; NYC, SF lose out Consistent with our national office story, we expect a few years of insipid rent growth and returns for most US office markets. Expensive coastal metros will continue to see weak demand as high rates... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Nov.) Real consumption is on course for solid growth of 3.5% annualised in the fourth quarter, but the income and spending data show that it stalled in November. The soft durable goods orders data for last... 23rd December 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The modest gain in GDP in October and upward revision to activity in previous months suggest the economy was coping well with higher interest rates at the start of the fourth quarter, but the... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Nov.) 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Falling inflation will be the big story of 2023 The November CPI report marked the second successive undershoot in inflation and there is mounting evidence that it will continue to fall sharply in 2023. (See Chart 1.) Core goods prices are coming... 21st December 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We do not expect tech stocks to prolong the S&P 500’s pain We doubt the current bear market in US equities will be as deep or as long as that after the dot com bubble burst, partly because “tech-heavy” sectors did not push up the S&P 500’s valuation relative... 21st December 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Core inflation pressures still too strong for comfort The renewed rise in the three-month annualised rates of CPI-trim and CPI-median inflation in November call into question the idea that the Bank of Canada has already finished its tightening cycle... 21st December 2022 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) Existing home sales experienced their largest drop in nine months in November, as October’s spike in mortgage rates fed through to sales. But mortgage rates have since dropped back and are likely to... 21st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Overall inflation pressures were stronger than anticipated in November and the 3-month annualised measures of CPI-trim and CPI-median both increased. This supports our view that the Bank of Canada... 21st December 2022 · 2 mins read
