US Economics Weekly Fed could be upstaged by CPI data The Fed is used to holding centre stage, but next Wednesday’s policy announcement could end up being overshadowed by the November CPI data, due for release on Tuesday. If we’re right and core prices... 9th December 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the loonie to weaken further against the US dollar The Canadian dollar has underperformed most other currencies over recent weeks, and we expect it to depreciate further against the US dollar over the first half of next year. In view of the wider... 9th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Treasury rally may almost have run its course We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to decline only a little further as US inflation continues to ease. 9th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Dovish Bank of Canada points to widening US-Canada yield gap We think the yield gap between 10-year US Treasuries and Canadian Government Bonds will remain wide next year, as we expect the Bank of Canada is nearing an early end of its hiking cycle and will... 8th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update On the timing and scale of a sustained rebound in the S&P 500 We suspect that the S&P 500 will make a new cyclical low by the spring of 2023 as a shallow recession gets underway in the US, before rebounding to end next year higher than it is now. In view of the... 8th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Moderate recession to drive inflation lower The economy is heading for a moderate recession, as higher interest rates weigh on domestic demand and exports contract amid the global downturn. Weaker demand, together with lower commodity prices... 8th December 2022 · 20 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Money growth has stagnated as the Fed’s monetary tightening ramps up, and, while bank loan growth remains robust, we expect it to fade in response to the lagged impact of higher rates and tighter... 8th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Single-family rental growth set to fall back to earth The single-family rental market has been on a roll since the GFC and the pandemic provided a further boost. Nonetheless, while it may hold up slightly better than multifamily over the next year or so... 8th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update The end of the tightening cycle? The Bank of Canada delivered a somewhat dovish 50bp rate hike today, by softening its explicit forward guidance that interest rates will need to rise further. Our GDP and inflation forecasts suggest... 7th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) A fall in mortgage rates from recent 20-year highs helped home purchase applications rise for the first time in eight months in November. However, while we expect mortgage rates to continue to trend... 7th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Peak in rates coming into view The Fed is set to slow the pace of tightening with a 50bp rate hike at its meeting next week. Chair Jerome Powell will seek to ensure the move isn’t interpreted as a dovish ‘pivot’, and the Fed’s new... 7th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Why this might have been another false start for the S&P 500 Although the 10-year Treasury yield has already dropped by roughly 60bp since the release of October’s CPI report on 10th November, we still see scope for it to end 2023 a bit lower than its current... 6th December 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update A tale of two labour markets The better-than-expected 263,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment suggests it’s still the best of times in the labour market but, digging below the surface, there are worrying signs that it could... 6th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The essentially unchanged level of export volumes in October, despite big gains in agricultural and pharmaceutical exports, suggests the sector is struggling amid weaker global demand. With the drop... 6th December 2022 · 3 mins read
