US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Oct.) Total employment grew across the 30 metros, but at a slower pace as labour market conditions continued to ease. With our proprietary indicators pointing to a 90% probability of an imminent recession... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 49.0 in November, the lowest reading since the early stages of the pandemic, from 50.2, leaves it at a level consistent with a stagnation in broader... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market conditions still easing gradually The further falls in job openings and voluntary quits in October indicate that labour market conditions are continuing to ease gradually, which should keep downward pressure on wage growth. 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Squaring yield curve inversion with the rally in risky assets While the progressive inversion of the Treasury yield curve may seem inconsistent with the recent rebound in risky assets in the US, they had already discounted some bad news about the economy... 30th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks plunged as the refinery utilisation rate rose, net imports fell sharply and strategic reserve releases continued to wind down. However, signs of lower domestic product demand... 30th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to drop down to 25 bp hike The easing of the three-month annualised measures of core inflation in October and signs of broader disinflationary pressure ahead lead us to think the Bank of Canada will drop down to a 25bp interest... 30th November 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Focus Wage growth to slow as labour market conditions ease As the economy slides into a mild recession in the first half of next year, triggering a rebound in the unemployment rate to almost 5% by end-2023, the resulting slowdown in the growth rates of wages... 30th November 2022 · 16 mins read
FX Markets Update More reasons why we don’t think the dollar has peaked (yet) Although the rally in the US dollar has seen a significant reversal over recent weeks, indicators from past turning points in the greenback suggest to us that there remains scope for the dollar to... 29th November 2022 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Sep.) A deterioration in affordability helped the Case-Shiller house price index to fall for the third consecutive month in September. The FHFA reported a small rise in prices, but we think more falls are... 29th November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Downturn starting to weigh on West Coast markets Third quarter data showed growing evidence of a softening in tenant demand in many metros. In particular, demand appears to be slowing in a number of West Coast markets, as hybrid and remote work... 29th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3) The stronger-than-expected gain in third-quarter GDP tips the odds slightly toward another 50 bp interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada next week. But, with domestic demand contracting for the... 29th November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Nov.) Despite the recent resilience of the hard economic data, the most reliable forward-looking indicators suggest that a recession is unavoidable – our six-month ahead composite model puts the odds at... 28th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US equities, bonds and earnings recessions We doubt the recent outperformance of equities vis-à-vis government bonds in the US will persist over the next three to six months, given our view that the economy there is heading for a mild... 25th November 2022 · 5 mins read
