Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing finally running out of steam The sharp fall in the EM manufacturing PMI suggests that the recent strength of industry may not be sustained in Q3. The declines in the PMIs were broad-based, although they are still relatively high... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Aug. 2024) Financial vulnerabilities have continued to ease across EMs. Our EM aggregate currency crisis risk indicator hit a multi-year low in Q2, with especially large falls in Turkey and Pakistan. Sovereign... 1st August 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (July) The July PMIs from Emerging Asia nudged down slightly from the previous month but remained close to their two-year highs. However, the PMI data have been a poor guide to the hard activity data over... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Emerging Asia Chart Pack (July 2024) Our Emerging Asia Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most central banks in Asia have left policy rates unchanged since bringing their... 31st July 2024 · 0 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We are optimistic about EM sovereign bonds’ returns Our view on emerging market local-currency government bonds is broadly upbeat for the next year or so. We think returns will be largest, in common-currency terms, in Emerging Asia. 31st July 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Jul. 2024) The PMIs for July suggest that China’s economy weakened further last month, as domestic weakness continues to weigh on the economy. But the government now seems intent on ramping up policy support... 31st July 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact... 30th July 2024 · 5 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth faltering as domestic weakness persists Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy has lost some steam recently with weak domestic demand weighing on activity. Alongside recent rate cuts, policymakers have signalled that fiscal... 30th July 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Jul. 2024) The readout of the Politburo’s latest triannual meeting on economic affairs has just been published by state media. It was dovish in tone and adds to recent evidence that the leadership believes more... 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Further easing on the cards The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) lowered its policy rate by 100bps today, and further easing is likely later in the year. Today’s cut marks the second consecutive meeting where the central bank has... 29th July 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Monetary and fiscal policy turning more supportive Policymakers’ concerns about the near-term outlook have become much more visible over the past couple of weeks, with weak Q2 growth and poor stock market performance triggering rate cuts and talk of... 26th July 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korean weakness, CBSL rate cut, Vietnam uncertainty The Korean GDP data published earlier this week highlighted how unbalanced the economy has been since the pandemic. Exports have been very strong, but domestic demand has struggled. Meanwhile, Sri... 26th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update India’s budget no boon for the country’s bonds & stocks Strong public investment growth alongside overall fiscal prudence have contributed to the rallies in India’s bond and stock markets over the past couple of years. However, we don’t see much in the... 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Singapore Central Bank Policy Meeting (July) The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy unchanged today, but we think today’s marginally dovish statement raises the likelihood of monetary easing in October. 26th July 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Medium-term Facility Rate (Jul. 2024) The PBOC’s decision to cut the 1-year interest rate on its medium-term lending facility (MLF) earlier today is unusual for two reasons. First, the 20bp reduction is double the size of the PBOC’s usual... 25th July 2024 · 3 mins read
