Bonds Focus The causes and consequences of waning demand for very long-dated bonds Very long-dated government bonds have been under serious pressure at times this year. Demand from traditional sources seems to have waned, and we doubt it’s coming back. In some cases, governments... 19th August 2025 · 28 mins read
Asia Economics Update More to strong Asian exports than tariff front-running Strong growth in exports from Asia in the first half of the year has fuelled talk that, with US tariffs now in place, shipments will fall sharply as tariff front-running ends. But we’re not convinced... 19th August 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update India’s GST reforms are an encouraging step Reported simplifications to India’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) would, all else equal, result in a slightly larger fiscal deficit this year and next, as well as provide some policy-induced support to... 18th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Property downturn to weigh on Korea’s economy Weak investment will remain a drag on Korea’s economy over the coming quarters, as a prolonged downturn in the property sector continues to weigh on construction. 18th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Thailand Q2 GDP (August 2025) Economic growth in Thailand slowed in the second quarter of the year, and we think the economy will struggle over the coming months as weaker exports, slower government spending and weak private... 18th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Malaysian growth to slow, Indonesia’s 2026 budget Malaysia’s economy grew by 4.4% y/y in Q2 as strong investment was offset by weak exports. Looking ahead, growth is likely to slow in the near term as planned fiscal tightening and subdued global... 15th August 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Consumer loan subsidies are a step in the right direction The new consumer loan subsidy programme announced by the Ministry of Finance this week is unlikely to significantly drive up household spending. But may be a sign that China's leadership is finally... 15th August 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: All eyes on Trump-Putin meeting, a Diwali GST gift The meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin in Alaska later today could pave the way to a reduction in India's US tariff rate. Meanwhile, PM Modi struck a defiant tone regarding the tariff threat... 15th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What could end the yen’s puzzling weakness? We still think the Japanese yen will stage a sustained rally against the US dollar. 15th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BoJ will welcome resilience of Japan’s economy While faster productivity growth makes it easier for firms to absorb stronger wage growth, the Bank of Japan will welcome the resilience of consumer spending and business investment since Liberation... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Jul. 2025) Q3 started on a weak note, with a broad-based slowdown across key indicators. Given cooling exports and a lack of additional policy support, we think the outlook for the rest of the year remains... 15th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan GDP (Q2 25 Preliminary) GDP growth rebounded more strongly last quarter than most had anticipated but we still expect a renewed slowdown over the coming quarters. 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
Equities Update Can India’s stock market withstand the tariff storm? The threat to India’s stock market from US tariffs is sizeable, and we suspect that it could fall a lot further if they are implemented as currently proposed. And in fact, we think there are enough... 14th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Global CRE needs a reset for real recovery to take hold With interest rates staying high and closed-end funds already sitting on a large volume of investors’ capital, global real estate fundraising looks set to stay in the doldrums. We think the sector... 13th August 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) There was a small pick-up in overall credit growth in China’s economy in July, as a result of a further surge in government borrowing. But bank loan growth has continued to slow, suggesting that... 13th August 2025 · 2 mins read
