India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Stars align for February repo rate cut The change in leadership at the RBI, along with the drop in headline CPI inflation in November reported this week, mean the stars are aligning for a repo rate cut in February. 13th December 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: CEWC flags boosting consumption as top priority The full readout from the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) adds weight to the idea that China’s leadership is shifting its focus toward supporting consumption. But it still appears too fixated... 13th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Tankan adds to case for December hike We’re in a minority of analysts expecting the Bank of Japan to hike rates next week. But the ongoing labour shortages and strength of output price pressures flagged in today’s Tankan have only made a... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Tankan (Q4 2024) The mediocre increase in business conditions across all firm sizes in the latest Tankan suggests that the activity is unlikely to rebound meaningfully this quarter, following a slowdown in Q3. The... 13th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2024) Capital inflows into EMs have been resurgent over the past few weeks amid a broader improvement in global risk appetite. Looking ahead, however, likely policies from President-elect Trump point to a... 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China’s dovish policy shift may not be enough The readout from China’s Central Economic Work Conference provides more detailed forward guidance on plans to adopt a more supportive policy stance next year – there will be more rate cuts and a... 12th December 2024 · 4 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024) The fall in headline consumer price inflation to back within the RBI's target range in November, along with the change of leadership at the central bank into a seemingly less hawkish direction, mean... 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will lift rates to 1.25% by mid-2026 The outcome of the Bank’s upcoming meeting is highly uncertain but we still think that a 25bp rate hike is more likely than not. And with the yen set to remain weaker for longer and wage growth set to... 12th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to EM elections in 2025 2025 will be a far quieter year in terms of elections than this year was. But there are some key votes that will, among other things, determine whether Argentina’s President Milei builds support for... 10th December 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook India Outlook: A tougher year ahead After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 10th December 2024 · 16 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Nov. 2024) Export growth slowed sharply last month but we doubt this signals the end of China’s recent export boom. We expect exports to accelerate again in the coming months, supported by gains in... 10th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Is this a new dawn for China’s stock market? The Hang Seng index enjoyed another stimulus-related boost today but we’ve seen similar spikes before. For now, we’d caution against interpreting the latest developments as confirmation large-scale... 9th December 2024 · 4 mins read
India Rapid Response India’s government appoints new RBI governor India’s government has just appointed Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra as the new governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). He will replace the Shaktikanta Das following six years at the helm. The... 9th December 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Dec. 24) The Politburo has just concluded its December meeting, which focuses foremost on economic affairs. After 14 years of monetary policy being officially characterised as “prudent”, the meeting readout... 9th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly What next for Korea? The longer the political crisis in Korea drags on, the worse the economic consequences will be. Consumer spending is likely to be affected and there will also be disruption if the country’s powerful... 6th December 2024 · 5 mins read
