China Economics Weekly Fed pivot offers limited relief, holiday spending falls flat Fed rate cuts will be welcomed by Chinese policymakers as they make it easier for property developers to service their dollar debt and reduce the need for PBOC intervention to defend the renminbi. But... 20th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update China green exports hit another fresh high Our proprietary measure of China’s green export volumes continued to rise in August to a new record high. Given that the EU tariffs have so far barely made a dent into China’s electric vehicle exports... 20th September 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fed easing, Q4 Outlook, Sensex surge The start of the Fed's easing cycle won't automatically cause the RBI to follow suit; we still think it will keep rates on hold in its next meeting in October. But the right domestic conditions will... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Another BoJ jump-start for the yen seems less likely While we do think the Bank of Japan will surprise with another hike this year, we suspect it will coincide with a more gradual strengthening of the yen rather than the sharp rally we saw last time. 20th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates once more in December The Bank of Japan today signalled that it’s in no rush to tighten monetary policy any further and we’re pushing back our forecast for a final rate hike to 0.5% from October to December. 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Sri Lanka election risks, new Indonesia rate forecast Sri Lanka has enjoyed a steady, if unspectacular recovery from the 2022 debt default crisis. However, this progress could be put at risk depending on the results of this weekend’s presidential... 20th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Will Japan have its first female prime minister? Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi is seen as the most suitable candidate for Prime Minister, though the race remains wide open. While she has opposed any policy tightening by the Bank of Japan... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Policy Rates (Sep. 2024) The lack of any reduction to policy rates today, despite the clear economic case for doing so, underscores the extent to which the PBOC remains constrained by concerns about bank profitability and... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Five key themes in world trade In the months ahead, there are five themes to watch for in the world of trade and shipping, the most immediate of which is the risk of strikes at US East and Gulf coast ports in October. The upshot is... 19th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Commodities Focus Metals: China slowdown to offset green transition While the green transition and AI-related use will boost demand for industrial metals over the rest of this decade, we expect this to largely be offset by a substantial contraction in demand from... 19th September 2024 · 10 mins read
China Economics Update Slowdown still has a lot further to run An acceleration in fiscal spending during the final months of the year should mean the 2024 growth target of “around 5.0%” is met, but only just – we now expect growth of 4.8% this year. China’s... 19th September 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rate cuts on the horizon The economy is cooling but remains primed to grow by 6-6.5% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next couple of years... 18th September 2024 · 16 mins read
