Asia Rapid Response Thailand GDP (Q3 2024) Economic growth in Thailand accelerated in Q3 and we think the boost from loose fiscal policy will support growth in the coming quarters and help offset a slowdown in the tourism sector. 18th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly New FX forecasts, BoT independence under threat We have finalised changes to our financial market forecasts following Donald Trump’s election victory. We think Asian currencies will weaken by 3-10% against the US dollar between now and the end of... 15th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Initial thoughts on commodities and Trump tariffs While it is uncertain exactly how Trump will approach tariffs during a second term, China will clearly be in the firing line and commodities could be caught in the crossfire. Iron and steel, and to a... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The poor prospects for China’s stock market We think that downward pressure on Chinese equities will intensify over the coming year or so, as the boost from largely insufficient fiscal support fades and Trump’s incoming administration proceeds... 15th November 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Why the Maharashtra election matters for investors State elections in India matter for economic policy but next week’s vote in Maharashtra holds more significance than most others. Economically it is India's most important state and developments there... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus next steps, lower growth forecast Hopes for fiscal stimulus have so far amounted to very little. Wider efforts to support growth are still ongoing and we should find out more about the leadership’s priorities early next month. But a... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Oct. 2024) China’s economy improved further at the start of Q4, thanks to stronger-than-expected consumer spending. We think faster fiscal spending will support a continued cyclical pickup in activity overing... 15th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Markets starting to anticipate December rate hike The financial markets have finally come around to our long-held view that the Bank of Japan will hike rates once more before year-end. With domestic economic data mixed, that probably reflects the... 15th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan GDP (Q3 24 Preliminary) The economy lost momentum in the third quarter and we think that GDP growth will remain around trend over the coming quarters 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Unsecured lending: boom to bust? We argued 18 months ago that the sharp rise in unsecured lending left India’s financial sector at risk of rising defaults, and anecdotal evidence suggests that this risk is materialising. The chances... 13th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update How much power will the DPP have? Our base case is that the LDP/Komeito coalition will be able to push through major pieces of legislation, including a supplementary budget by year-end, with only minor concessions to the Democratic... 13th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Trump trade and EM crisis risks The environment of higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar that we think will accompany a second Trump administration is one that, historically, has been associated with crises in EMs with... 12th November 2024 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024) Another bigger-than-expected jump in headline consumer price inflation last month will be enough to convince a majority of MPC members that conditions are not yet right to begin easing policy. We now... 12th November 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) Both bank lending and broad credit growth hit fresh lows in October in a sign that monetary easing hasn’t done enough to drive a substantial turnaround in private credit demand. And after last week’s... 12th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer spending has further to run. With the Bank of Japan sounding more upbeat at their October meeting and... 12th November 2024 · 1 min read
