Climate Economics Update Solar take-up in Saudi will be felt in global oil markets The renewable rollout in Saudi Arabia is set to accelerate on the back of cheap solar panel imports from China. Given that Saudi Arabia is one of a few countries that directly burns crude oil for... 5th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Tariffs are just one threat of many to China’s markets Tariffs could continue to be a big challenge to China’s renminbi and stock market, but we think both could have a tough year regardless of how trade tensions play out. 5th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s rice inflation will plunge this year The largest increase in rice prices on record has provided a sizeable boost to inflation in recent months but we expect rice inflation to slow sharply this year. While our forecast is a 0.6%-pt... 5th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (December 24) Regular earnings growth will hold strong at just under 3% for most of this year Growth in base pay rose the most since 1992 in December, and we think it will continue to hold strong in this year... 4th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily A few observations from the market reaction to tariffs While we expect the US to start a trade war this year, we doubt that the initial reaction to the tariffs on Monday will necessarily set the tone for 2025. 4th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Is this the start of a major central bank divergence? We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss the outlook for interest rates in major advanced economies as the Fed hit the pause button while the ECB cut again. (See a recording here .) The... 4th February 2025 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response China retaliates, risking further tariff escalation After initially promising unspecified "countermeasures", the Chinese authorities have now fleshed out their retaliation to the Trump administration's 10% tariff hike on all US imports from China. The... 4th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry struggling even before potential Trump tariffs The latest PMIs suggests that the weakness in EM manufacturing at the end of last year has continued into 2025. While the events of today have highlighted the uncertainty around Trump’s trade policy... 3rd February 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China gets off lightly on tariffs, for now The additional 10% tariff that Donald Trump has applied on Chinese goods will have a relatively modest impact on China’s economy, especially if the PBOC allows the renminbi to adjust. But this is... 3rd February 2025 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia January PMIs, Korea Trade The January PMIs for Asia were generally weak, supporting our view that manufacturing activity and GDP growth in the region are likely to remain below trend in the near term. And with inflation back... 3rd February 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Trump hits Canada, China and Mexico with tariffs President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on China from this coming Tuesday, (with the only partial exemption for Canadian energy... 2nd February 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update India’s Union Budget to provide limited growth boost Tax breaks included in India’s FY25/26 Union Budget announcement should provide some support to household consumption but, overall, the measures fall some way short of constituting major stimulus... 1st February 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Economics Weekly: China’s AI shock, Year of the Snake The launch of DeepSeek's new AI model had US markets reeling at the start of this week, but we don't think it’s a sign that China's AI technology is poised to overtake the US. And while snake years... 31st January 2025 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan. 25) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy should accelerate over the near-term, driven by consumption-boosting policy support. But... 31st January 2025 · 1 min read
