China Economics Weekly Tariff cut isn’t the biggest trade truce win for China The halving of fentanyl tariffs won’t have much of an impact on China's economy. More consequential for China is the suspension of the Entity List Affiliates Rule, which buys thousands of firms time... 31st October 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Key takeaways from Trump’s visit, new Korea forecasts US President Donald Trump’s visit to Asia this week led to the signing of several trade deals that should, at the margin, lend modest support to regional economic growth. This may, in turn, strengthen... 31st October 2025 · 8 mins read
China Rapid Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s GDP growth delivered a strong upside surprise in Q3, picking up to 3.8% y/y, from 3.1% y/y in Q2 (the Bloomberg median was +2.9% and our forecast was +3.3 %). While that partly reflects a... 31st October 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bihar election looms large over India-US trade talks The Bihar state election will be closely watched for its implications for reforms and as a potential referendum on India’s stance in trade talks with the US. Bihar is one of India’s most agrarian... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update China’s equities have more to gain as tensions ease We think China’s equities stand to benefit more than those in the US from any further easing in US-China tensions. That said, we still think the US stock market will outperform China’s over the next... 31st October 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ on course for January rate hike While the Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged this week, Governor Ueda signaled that the Board won’t wait much longer before resuming its tightening cycle. Indeed, with structural labour... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Oct. 2025) The drop in the RatingDog services PMI provides further evidence that China’s economy lost some momentum last month, with slower growth across manufacturing, services and construction. Some of this... 31st October 2025 (Updated 3rd November 2025) · 2 mins read
APAC Commercial Property Update RICS data shows APAC CRE sentiment still subdued in Q3 The latest RICS Commercial Property Sentiment Index for Asia-Pacific remained in negative territory in Q3, reaffirming our view that the recovery in this cycle will be weak. Mainland China and Hong... 31st October 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production, Retail Sales & Labour Market (Sep. 25) The September activity data suggest that the contraction in Q3 GDP may be milder than we had anticipated and the economy should return to growth this quarter. 31st October 2025 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct. 25) While growth picked up in Q3, our China Activity Proxy still suggests that the economy is expanding at a much weaker pace than official figures indicate. Export growth has continued to hold up well in... 30th October 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily The Fed, the BoJ, the ECB, and the bond market The Fed and the BoJ sent their respective government bond markets in different directions earlier today, but we expect yields in both places to rise over time. By contrast, while the ECB is likely to... 30th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will wait until January before tightening again The Bank of Japan kept policy settings unchanged today and Governor Ueda indicated that the Bank wants to gather more information on the strength of pay hikes in next year’s spring wage negotiations... 30th October 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Xi-Trump talks buy China time to decouple at its own pace The reversal of some US tariffs on China won’t have a big impact given that Chinese exporters had largely shrugged them off. But the de-escalation takes the immediate threat of large tariff hikes off... 30th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (Oct. 25) The Bank of Japan signaled continued concerns about the impact of higher US tariff when keeping policy settings unchanged today and we’re sticking to our forecast that the next rate hike will only... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC’s return to bond trading signals renewed easing The PBOC’s bond trading operations were initially envisaged as a tool to limit declines in yields. But, alongside policy rate cuts, they are likely to be used to guide yields lower over the coming... 30th October 2025 · 4 mins read
