Asia Economics Weekly North Korea tensions rising, US election implications North Korea’s relations with South Korea and its allies have taken a marked turn for the worse over the past month, with experts warning that “the situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous... 1st November 2024 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal package should limit downside risk to growth The NPC standing committee is set to approve a fiscal package at its meeting next week. A large proportion will likely be used to tackle local government debt, but it's unclear how much (if any) will... 1st November 2024 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct .24) The economy has already regained some momentum on the back of increased policy support. But the extent of the recovery hinges on the scale of fiscal stimulus, which remains uncertain. Our base case is... 1st November 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (October) The October PMIs from Asia remained weak and while the PMI surveys aren’t always a good guide to the hard activity data, their recent signals are consistent with our expectation for manufacturing... 1st November 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Political vacuum won’t deter year-end rate hike It now looks likely that the existing LDP/Komeito coalition will remain in power via a partial alliance with the Democratic Party for the People. While there's a risk that the DPP demands policy... 1st November 2024 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy contracted sharply in Q3. GDP surprised significantly to the downside, with growth of 0.4% q/q in Q2 more than reversed by a 1.1% q/q fall in Q3 (Bloomberg median: +0.2%, CE: -0.2%... 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Taiwan GDP (Q3, first estimate) Taiwan’s economy rebounded in Q3, and we expect GDP growth to remain fairly strong over the coming quarters, helped by robust export demand. 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ opens door to another rate hike BoJ Governor Ueda sounded more optimistic today and we’re sticking to our forecast of another rate hike at the Bank’s next meeting in December, though we don’t expect further tightening in 2025. 31st October 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Oct. 2024) The PMIs have overstated the weakness in China’s economy during the past year. But they still provide some sense of the direction of travel. The good news is that the surveys point to an improvement... 31st October 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep. 24) 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2024) Financial vulnerabilities have declined further across EMs. Our currency crisis risk indicator was at yet another multi-year low in Q3 and sovereign debt risks have eased across large parts of Africa... 30th October 2024 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Demand from EMs would help cushion Trump tariffs EMs are playing a growing role as substitute markets for Chinese exporters that face rising trade barriers in DMs. A second trade war with a re-elected President Trump would only accelerate that shift... 30th October 2024 · 7 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Financial sector drives a strong expansion Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy’s growth picked up in September, bringing Q3 growth in-line with official estimates. While this acceleration was broad-based across sectors, the main... 29th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2024) Our measure of capital outflows from EMs has jumped to its highest level since July 2022 amid the recent surge in US Treasury yields and strengthening of the dollar. If Donald Trump wins the US... 29th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asia Chart Pack (October 2024) Our Asia Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With GDP growth set to struggle and inflation to remain low, central banks are likely to continue to... 29th October 2024 · 0 mins read
