India Rapid Response India GDP (Q4 2024) GDP figures for Q4 2024 show that India’s economy remained fairly soft by its own standards at the end of last year. But with policy now decisively turning more supportive, economic growth should pick... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Rising US tariffs to test China’s exchange rate policy With US tariffs now escalating, the key question is whether the People’s Bank (PBOC) will allow the exchange rate to adjust in response. We think it ultimately will, just as it did during the first... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Jump in Korea’s fertility rate, Indonesia’s new sovereign wealth fund Figures published earlier this week showed the fertility rate in Korea increased last year for the first time in nine years. However, we think this was mainly due to a post-COVID rebound in marriages... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Demographic crisis worsening as births keep falling Japan is now recording more than twice as many deaths as births, with that ratio only surpassed in war-ravaged Ukraine and celibate Holy See. While the number of employed people nonetheless hit a... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update A new dawn for China's stock market? The near-term picture for China’s equities looks brighter than we’d previously thought, and we’re revising up our forecasts for them significantly. But, we still think they will underperform those in... 28th February 2025 · 8 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jan. 25) & Tokyo CPI (Feb. 25) The January activity data suggest that GDP will have fallen this quarter, but that would follow strong gains in previous quarters. With inflation set to overshoot the Bank of Japan’s forecasts, we... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Is Trump’s opening to Russia a “Reverse Nixon”? President Trump’s attempts to reset relations with Russia have led some to suggest that he may be attempting to break apart the Sino-Russian alliance as Nixon did in the early 1970s (although in Nixon... 27th February 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update Homebuilding downturn will continue for years Policy support is helping developers secure financing and should boost their sales this year. This will allow them to intensify work on existing projects. But it won’t prevent homebuilding activity... 27th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia’s bond purchases could backfire Bank Indonesia now owns a larger share of government bonds than some DM central banks did at the height of their pandemic QE programmes. Amidst worries that the fiscal guardrails are coming off, BI’s... 27th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asia Chart Pack (February 2025) Our Asia Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With GDP growth set to struggle and inflation to remain low, central banks are likely to continue to... 26th February 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb. 2025) On aggregate, EM capital markets have continued to experience outflows in recent weeks and it’s hard to see a significant turnaround given that President Trump’s proposed policies would likely result... 26th February 2025 · 0 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (February 2025) India’s economy is in the midst of a softer patch which we think will continue for a few more quarters. Headline CPI inflation is now within touching distance of the Reserve Bank’s 4% target and looks... 26th February 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Rapid Response Thailand Monetary Policy Announcement (February) 26th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Global megatrends will outweigh Trump disruption President Trump’s trade and other policies might cause turbulence over the next few years, but they are unlikely to derail the megatrends which will shape the global economy in the long run. We still... 25th February 2025 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
Event China Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environment 1741161600 This year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) is taking place against a difficult backdrop for China’s economy; stimulus efforts have so far had only a fleeting impact on activ
Event Japan Drop-In: The Shunto, the Bank of Japan and the inflation and policy outlook 1741939200 Will the Bank of Japan be doing a victory lap this year in its quest to get inflation sustainably to 2%?
