Asia Chart Pack Asia Chart Pack (November 2024) With GDP growth set to struggle and inflation to remain low, central banks are likely to continue to cut interest rates over the coming months. Overall, we expect most central banks to cut rates by... 29th November 2024 · 0 mins read
China Economics Weekly China: Fentanyl curbs, CNY intervention, tech milestone China is likely to intensify its crackdown on fentanyl in a bid to avoid the additional 10% tariff threatened by Trump. The PBOC has drawn a line in the sand for the renminbi around 7.33/$ but would... 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will hike rates further to 1.25% by 2026 The pick-up in inflation excluding fresh food and energy in Tokyo in November points to the nationwide measure rising further above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. With the yen set to remain weak for... 29th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Oct. 2024) & Tokyo CPI (Nov. 2024) The Tokyo CPI suggests that inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose further above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in November, supporting our long-held view that the Bank will hike rates in... 28th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Further interest rate cuts likely next year in Korea The Bank of Korea cut interest rates again today by a further 25bps (to 3.00%) and made clear in its statement that more easing is on the way. We are sticking with our view that the central bank will... 28th November 2024 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: New model points to weaker growth in China We’re launching an updated version of our China Activity Proxy this month, alongside an interactive dashboard that gives clients access to the data. Our expanded model suggests that China’s growth so... 27th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (November 2024) EM GDP growth ticked up in Q3 but is likely to fall short of expectations over the coming quarters as stimulus in China disappoints and still-tight monetary policy takes it toll. For most EMs, a... 27th November 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2024) Amid the Trump Trade, capital outflows from EM financial markets have persisted over recent weeks. Looking ahead, we expect the US dollar to strengthen further, suggesting that outflows will continue... 26th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Equities Focus Is a bubble in India’s stock market deflating? India’s stock market has had such a good few years that it started to raise concerns about whether it was in a “bubble”. And as it’s come under pressure recently, some have speculated that the bubble... 26th November 2024 · 13 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (November 2024) The latest activity data have brought further evidence that India’s economy is going through a soft patch. But given the strength of the recent inflation data, we now expect the RBI to keep rates on... 25th November 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How to think about tariffs In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use to answer key questions about the impact of Trump’s proposals for a 10% universal... 25th November 2024 · 21 mins read
Commodities Weekly Tariffs & re-routing commodity trade; natural gas soars The election victory of Donald Trump and the prospect of renewed trade restrictions has naturally sharpened attention on the potential impact of tariffs on trade flows, including on commodity trade... 22nd November 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Will the Bank of Korea spring a surprise? The Bank of Korea pushed back strongly against the prospect of back-to-back rate cuts when it began its easing cycle last month, and most analysts expect rates to be left unchanged at the BoK’s... 22nd November 2024 · 6 mins read
