Bank of Japan Watch Case for further BoJ tightening continues to strengthen The Bank of Japan will keep policy settings unchanged at its upcoming meeting that ends on 19 th March. But with inflation set to overshoot the Bank’s forecasts, we expect the Bank to hike rates again... 12th March 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economic Outlook India Outlook: Economy well-placed to weather tariff storm India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary... 11th March 2025 · 17 mins read
Capital Daily China’s bonds could reverse course soon We suspect the jump in bond yields in China will prove short-lived. 10th March 2025 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb. 2025) CPI joined PPI in deflationary territory last month for the first time in more than a year. While this was partly driven by the usual price volatility around Lunar New Year, the January-February... 10th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jan. 25) Regular pay growth surged in January and with this year’s spring wage negotiations set to result in stronger pay hikes than last year, wage growth will pick up further over the course of the year 9th March 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Q1 fiscal tightening to reverse before long While the annual budget presented at the NPC implies an acceleration in fiscal expenditure this year, early signs are that spending has slowed in Q1, weighing on economic activity. Fiscal spending... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Tariffs, trade talks and Tesla President Trump had some stern words on India's tariff policy this week. But the Trump administration’s stance on India seems different from its approach to other countries: it seems focused on... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly From tariffs to troops: what Trump means for Taiwan The focus of Trump’s tariff measures may soon extend beyond China, Mexico, and Canada, with Taiwan emerging as a likely target due to its large trade surplus with the US. While potential reciprocal... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Shunto bonanza points to more rate hikes Japan’s trade unions are requesting an even larger pay hike in this year’s spring wage negotiations than they did a year ago and we expect employers to comply. With inflation already on track to... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Jan. & Feb. 2025) Export growth cooled over the first two months of 2025, with tariff front-running providing less of a boost to demand than we had anticipated. This slowdown comes before any substantial hit from... 7th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (March 2025) Weak global demand a risk to OPEC+ plans The recent confirmation from OPEC+ that it intends to go ahead with the plans to gradually increase oil production from April has coincided with ongoing signs... 6th March 2025 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Outlook Climate Economics Outlook: Technical progress outweighs political pushback The push back against the costs of climate policy, alongside the fracturing of the global economy, risks raising the cost of the green transition and slowing progress reducing emissions this decade... 6th March 2025 · 15 mins read
Global Markets Update Some new market forecasts for a changing world The unravelling of US exceptionalism in stock markets since Donald Trump returned to the White House on 20th January has been mainly driven by concerns about the US’ dominance of AI and the relative... 6th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Who will be the next Vietnam? Vietnam has seen a surge in exports to the US in recent years and arguably emerged as the biggest winner of Trump’s first trade war with China. However, Vietnam’s huge bilateral trade surplus with the... 6th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan 2025 spring wage negotiations (Shunto) wage request With Japan’s trade unions requesting an even larger pay hike in this year’s spring wage negotiations (Shunto) than they did a year ago, we now expect the negotiations to result in a base pay hike of... 6th March 2025 · 2 mins read
