Climate Economics Update China’s green exports were part of broader slowdown The slowdown in the annual growth rate of our proprietary measure of China's so-called New Three export volumes in October suggests that China’s green technology exporters were not immune to broader... 20th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Can AI keep Asia’s export boom going? Asian exports are now growing at their fastest rate in more than three years, and should continue to expand at a decent pace over the coming year. While US tariffs have hit China’s (and more recently... 20th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: why aren’t consumers joining the party? Taiwan’s economy is booming and this has been driven almost entirely by exports, whereas domestic demand, and especially consumer spending, has been sluggish. That’s because faster wage increases in... 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2025) Bank Indonesia left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.75% today for a second consecutive meeting but the accompanying communications remained dovish and we still think there’s scope for further... 19th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Takaichi unlikely to curb immigration much Concerns that new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will drastically reduce immigration inflows seem overdone. But we suspect that the increase in immigration inflows over the past decade will come to a... 19th November 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update India’s core inflation unlikely to rise much further Headline inflation in India has fallen to a multi-decade low, but core inflation is currently at its highest in 18 months. But even if the economy continues to perform well as we expect, low household... 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
APAC Commercial Property Chart Pack APAC Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2025) Asia-Pacific all-property capital value declines slowed further with Q3 down just 1.1% y/y. Yet we expect the recovery to be modest, constrained by high risk-free rates and limited rental growth... 18th November 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Early current account warning signs in a few EMs Emerging economies’ external positions generally look strong. But current account deficits are starting to widen in a handful of countries in Latin America as well as in the Philippines and Poland... 17th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Unpacking the key unknowns that will drive peak oil A growing divergence in views on the trajectory of oil demand over the next 25 years – and whether demand will even reach a peak during this period – partly reflects the reduction in political support... 17th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Thailand GDP (Q3 2025) Thailand’s economy contracted during the third quarter and we think it will struggle over the coming months, prompting the central bank to step in and loosen monetary policy by more than most expect. 17th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan GDP (Q3 2025 Preliminary) The fall in GDP last quarter further reduces the chances of a BoJ rate hike in December but we still think that the Bank will resume its tightening cycle at its January meeting. 17th November 2025 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Why is the yen still so weak? The Japanese yen continues to suffer from the wide monetary policy gap between Japan and other major economies. We think that gap will gradually narrow and the yen recover some ground over the next... 14th November 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Concerns about bank margins don’t preclude easing As the tailwind from fiscal loosening diminishes, the case for more monetary support will increase. And while the PBOC’s latest policy report flags narrowing bank margins as a concern, this may... 14th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK minutes, Malaysia Q3 GDP, Korean defence boost The Bank of Korea’s latest minutes show the central bank has become more upbeat on the near-term growth outlook and more concerned about rising property prices in Seoul. This reinforces our view that... 14th November 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly New inflation forecasts, Bihar election implications Headline inflation in India fell to a near 26-year low in October. Although this probably marks the bottom, we now think it will average just 3.0% in 2026, from 3.4% previously. That will allow the... 14th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: growth to struggle as consumers pull back Thailand’s recovery from the pandemic has been one of the weakest in Asia and, with the boost from consumer spending fading as households deleverage, the economy is running short of growth drivers. We... 14th November 2025 · 3 mins read
