Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity, Labour Market (Apr. 26) & Tokyo CPI (May 26) The April activity data show that Japan’s economy is shrugging off the energy cost shock and cement the case for a BoJ rate hike next month. 29th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asia Chart Pack (May 2026) Our Asia Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Asia’s heavy reliance on imported energy – particularly shipments passing through the... 28th May 2026 · 0 mins read
RBI Watch Rate hike likely as inflation and FX concerns build In contrast to the majority of analysts who are expecting no change, we think the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will raise the repo rate by 25bp to 5.50% at the conclusion of next week’s Monetary Policy... 28th May 2026 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update Risks of a sudden carry trade unwind are building While the Iran war does not appear to have pulled the plug on the carry trade yet, the risk of a sudden unwind may continue to build for as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. But even if it... 28th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update A hawkish hold, as Bank of Korea signals rate hikes coming The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged at 2.50%, but clearly signalled that rate hikes were coming amid concerns about the inflationary impact of higher energy prices. We have adjusted... 28th May 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Hukou reform is no panacea for weak consumption Chinese policymakers have already improved rural migrants’ access to urban public services considerably over the past decade. The latest State Council plan is a continuation of those efforts rather... 28th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Japanese capital repatriation still not a big threat In light of recent market developments, we are re-sending this Update on the implications of higher Japanese yields for global markets. Despite the continued rise in JGB yields, we don’t think global... 28th May 2026 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Still no clear growth drag from Iran conflict Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy slowed in April. However, this looks to have been entirely driven by weaker domestic demand on the back of a pullback in fiscal spending. Exports... 27th May 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2026) Capital outflows from EMs have generally eased over the past month. Further progress in talks between the US and Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz would help outflows to decline further. But even... 26th May 2026 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update India trip notes – heatwave, rupee, RBI and AI A week spent visiting clients and contacts in Delhi and Mumbai has underscored the extent to which the Middle East conflict is reverberating through the economy. Several of our discussions were... 26th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Could the BoJ lift rates into restrictive territory? The inflationary consequences of the Iran War have made us more confident in our view that the BoJ’s policy rate will climb to a neutral level of around 2% before long. However, the hurdles for the... 26th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka hikes rates as Asian policymakers become more hawkish Today’s sharp increase in interest rates in Sri Lanka highlights the country’s vulnerability to the crisis in the Middle East, and is unlikely to be the last unless the crisis subsides soon. Please... 26th May 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly US tariffs on China set to rise again The Trump administration has signalled that it still intends to impose new Section 301 duties on China to replace the IEEPA tariffs that were struck down by the Supreme Court. This looks set to more... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank Indonesia hikes, who will be next? Bank Indonesia delivered an unexpected 50bps rate hike earlier, driven primarily by concerns over rupiah weakness. We now see a further 50bps of tightening by end-2026. Attention now turns to meetings... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will lift rates to 2% by end-2027 We learned this week that the Japanese economy was in solid shape on the eve of the Iran war. Moreover, the May PMIs suggest that the Bank of Japan’s fears of a steep downturn are unlikely to... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
