India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Limited macro risks from weaker rupee The Indian rupee is hovering close to record lows against the US dollar and we think it will hit a new low of 90/$ by the end of the year. This presents limited macro risk: the inflation pass through... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Strong inflation underpinned by soaring labour costs With the economy growing well above trend and inflation double the Bank of Japan's target, the financial markets are starting to come around to our view that the Bank will lift its policy rate to 1%... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (February 25) The further rebound in the composite PMI in February coupled with the persistent strength in manufacturing output prices suggests that the Bank of Japan won’t wait long before hiking rates again 21st February 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Jan. 25) The acceleration in headline inflation and strength in underlying inflation in January should add to the Bank of Japan’s confidence that it can continue its tightening cycle over the coming quarters... 20th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (February 2025) EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of 2024 but faces headwinds this year from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary... 20th February 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Tariffs or no tariffs, LME copper prices will still fall Whilst COMEX benchmark copper prices will be heavily influenced by President Trump’s plans for tariffs in the near term, the bigger picture is that weak demand growth and robust refined copper supply... 20th February 2025 (Updated 24th March 2025) · 4 mins read
Capital Daily China’s renminbi dilemma We still think the PBOC will allow the renminbi to depreciate against the US dollar, perhaps quite significantly, by the end of the year. 20th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Korea: 1% GDP growth to prompt further rate cuts We expect Korea’s economy to grow by just 1.0% this year, with the political crisis and the downturn in the property sector set to weigh heavily on demand. Our forecast is well below both the... 19th February 2025 · 11 mins read
Climate Economics Update Emissions reduction efforts becoming fractured Whereas political pushback against the cost of climate action is hindering policy in North America and Europe, the tailwinds from China’s low-cost green technology exports are becoming more... 19th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt China equity outperformance will last Chinese stocks have generally outperformed those elsewhere in recent weeks amid signs that investors’ enthusiasm over AI is (belatedly) benefiting stocks there. While we agree that the outlook for... 18th February 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update India’s digital economy going from strength to strength Five years on from start of the pandemic, one of the big economic legacies in India is the adoption of digital payments, driven by mobile apps and the Unified Payments Interface. This increased... 18th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks outside of Asia increasingly cautious The outcomes of central bank meetings over the last few weeks underscore the point that Asia will lead the next phase of the EM monetary easing cycle this year, alongside Mexico. Meanwhile, there are... 17th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Why are Japan’s households not partying like its 1989? While household incomes are rising the most since the early 1990s, households are saving rather than spending the bulk of those gains. And with real income growth set to slow this year, we expect... 17th February 2025 · 3 mins read
