CAP: Still no clear growth drag from Iran conflict

27th May 2026

Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy slowed in April. However, this looks to have been entirely driven by weaker domestic demand on the back of a pullback in fiscal spending. Exports continued to expand at pace last month, and we are still optimistic that China’s economy will remain resilient this year, with high global oil prices counter-intuitively boosting demand for China’s exports.

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