Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2025) EM capital outflows continued over the past month, driven by equities while bond inflows persisted. Even if outflows continue, strong external balance sheets mean that most EMs are well placed to... 18th December 2025 · 0 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Muddling through The global economy enters 2026 under the influence of contrasting forces, which will result in moderate GDP growth overall but widening gaps in performance and policy. The economic benefits of AI will... 18th December 2025 · 45 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Taiwan Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate on hold today (at 2.00%) and, with growth likely to remain strong and inflation set to stay low, policy settings look set to be left unchanged... 18th December 2025 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (December 2025) After a very strong 2025, economic growth in India is likely to slow in 2026 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if they don’t, India will remain a relative... 17th December 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec. 2025) Bank Indonesia left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.75% today for a third consecutive meeting but, once again, the accompanying communications were dovish and we still think there’s scope for... 17th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Thailand Interest Rate Announcement (Dec. 2025) Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today cut interest rates by a further 25bps, to 1.25%, and we doubt this marks the end of the easing cycle. With growth struggling and price pressures very low, we expect... 17th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Would an end to the AI boom drag down EM equities? Although emerging market equities are, in some places, very heavily exposed to the AI boom, we think they would in aggregate hold up better than those in the US if that boom continued to unwind. 17th December 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Are India’s non-tariff barriers also being lowered? Non-tariff barriers in India have risen over the past decade, as highlighted by the widespread use of Quality Control Orders (QCOs). It is encouraging therefore that there appears to have been a... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
APAC Commercial Property Update Rental growth will help Japan defy the squeezed yield spread Rising interest rates in Japan have raised concerns about whether this will slow investment activity and exert downward pressure on capital values. Our view is that while the risk-free rate will... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Solid growth, easing cycles drawing to a close The economic outlook across much of Asia has improved recently, prompting modest upward revisions to our 2026 GDP growth forecasts. Strong demand for AI-related products will continue to lift exports... 15th December 2025 · 25 mins read
China Economic Outlook Growth to stay soft as deflation persists Fiscal support and a ramp-up in AI investment will prevent a sharp slowdown in China’s economy, but we expect growth to remain weak in 2026. Deflation and overcapacity will persist and China’s... 15th December 2025 · 17 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Nov. 2025) November data point to broad-based weakness in domestic activity, largely due to a pullback in fiscal spending. Policy support should help drive a partial recovery in the coming months, but this... 15th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ set to hike further as business conditions strengthen The Q4 Tankan Survey struck all the right notes from the Bank of Japan’s perspective. It showed that business conditions are improving, profit margins remain elevated, and that firms are upbeat about... 15th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What’s a bit different about this latest slump in JGBs Unlike the rout this spring, the latest sell-off in JGBs seems to have been mainly driven by a more hawkish assessment of Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy across the curve. We forecast the 10-year yield to... 12th December 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Limited macro impact from further rupee weakness The Indian rupee continues to hit fresh lows against the US dollar and we think it will weaken to 93/$ by the end of next year. This presents limited macro risk: inflation and FX debts are very low... 12th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy bigger than thought and poised to rebound Rebased national accounts data released this week show that Japan’s nominal GDP is around 5% higher than previously estimated, which in turn implies that the ratio of public debt to GDP is lower. This... 12th December 2025 · 6 mins read
