Capital Daily Could markets prompt Trump to change his plans for Greenland? The latest triple sell-off in US equities, Treasuries, and the dollar would probably have to become much larger before the ‘guardrails’ of the financial markets prompted Donald Trump to change his... 20th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia’s policymaking concerns back in the spotlight The credibility of policymaking in Indonesia has been dealt a fresh blow at the start of 2026. It will take time for the more pernicious effects of populist and interventionist policies under... 20th January 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economics Focus What to expect from India’s Union Budget Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will be keen to demonstrate continued fiscal restraint when she delivers her ninth Union Budget on Sunday 1st February. But the current political backdrop is not... 20th January 2026 · 9 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q4) & Activity (Dec. 2025) Although full-year growth came in at 5.0% y/y, in line with the government’s target, we estimate that the actual pace of economic expansion was at least 1.5%-pts weaker. The December activity data... 19th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Is PM Takaichi creating her own Liz Truss moment? Our base case remains that Japan will avoid a fiscal crisis as its public debt dynamics are more favourable than is widely understood. However, there are mounting risks that PM Takaichi will only rein... 19th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Some more thoughts on the yen’s puzzling weakness Although the yen has recovered a bit of ground against the dollar in the past few days, its prior weakness remains something of a puzzle. 16th January 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Breaking down China’s record trade surplus China’s trade surplus hit 1% of global GDP last year, a new record. This was made possible by reorientating trade toward non-U.S. markets, especially ASEAN but also Europe and Africa. It also involved... 16th January 2026 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Exports to US (and imports from Russia) holding up The December goods trade data released this week continue to show resilience in exports to the US at the headline level. But that probably reflects strength in tariff-exempt sectors such as... 16th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan: US trade deal and TSMC earnings add to optimism The trade deal struck between Taiwan and the US, alongside another bumper earnings report from TSMC, strengthens our conviction that Taiwan will record another year of rapid GDP growth in 2026. 16th January 2026 · 8 mins read
Event India Drop-In: Budget, RBI & the road ahead 28th January 2026, 9:00AM GMT 2025 was another stellar year for India's economy. But with headwinds building in 2026, will policymakers need to step up their game?
Japan Economics Weekly Hawkish BoJ may lift JGB yields even further We aren’t convinced that the continued rise in long-term bond yields coupled with the further weakening of the yen signals a loss of confidence in Japanese assets. But if the BoJ signals a more... 16th January 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Limited monetary easing won’t boost growth The PBOC has announced plans to cut interest rates on structural policy tools, and suggested broader-based policy rate cuts are on the horizon. But we doubt rate cuts will be enough to drive up loan... 15th January 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Indian equities: another year of underperformance ahead India’s equity market ended 2025 with its worst underperformance relative to its emerging market peers in three decades. Although we expect India’s economy to remain a global outperformer in 2026, we... 15th January 2026 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec. 2025) Credit growth in China continued to slow in December, as government bond issuance decelerated. Although the PBOC is signalling that policy rate cuts are on the horizon, this is unlikely to prevent... 15th January 2026 · 2 mins read
