Japan Economics Update Ueda opens door to September BoJ rate hike In response to Governor Ueda’s hawkish comments, we’re bringing forward our forecast for the next rate hike from October to September. That would imply a marked acceleration in the Bank’s tightening... 31st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Sales tax suspension adds to fiscal concerns While the government’s decision to press ahead with lowering the sales tax on food next year will reduce headline inflation sharply, we don’t think it will have major consequences for the outlook for... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (Jul. 26) While the BoJ left interest rates unchanged as widely anticipated, the accompanying Outlook report was hawkish and we’re sticking to our non-consensus view that the Bank will lift interest rates to 2%... 31st July 2026 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Jul. 2026) The unofficial services PMI dropped sharply in July, mirroring the decline in its official counterpart and adding to the evidence that China's economy lost momentum at the start of Q3. But the recent... 31st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity, Labour Market (Jun. 26) & Tokyo CPI (July 26) The June activity data suggest that GDP rose at a robust pace last quarter, while there are early signs that higher energy costs are feeding through to consumer prices. 31st July 2026 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Sixth(!) time the charm for the yen? Intervention in support of the yen may not work any better now than it has previously, but the persistence of the Japanese authorities suggests to us that the yen will remain around the 160 level this... 31st July 2026 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (July 26) At around 3.2% y/y, China’s growth in Q2 was over 1%-pt weaker than official figures suggest. But growth has held steady in the face of the Iran war. Exports have continued to surge, largely driven by... 30th July 2026 · 0 mins read
China Economics Update The renminbi could not rebalance China on its own A significant appreciation of the renminbi would narrow China’s enormous trade surplus but it would also make the domestic deflation problem worse. This trade-off can only be addressed if a stronger... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2026) Our proprietary EM financial risk indicators show that the majority of EMs have been well placed to weather the effects of the energy shock. Our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains... 30th July 2026 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update Profit pick-up doesn’t signal overcapacity being resolved The recent pick-up in industrial profit growth is not a sign that excess capacity in China’s manufacturing sector is being meaningfully resolved. Strong profit growth is concentrated in a few sectors... 30th July 2026 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Jul. 26) The Politburo has just concluded its July meeting which, as usual, focused on economic affairs. The tone was less upbeat than the April meeting, presumably reflecting the deterioration in a number of... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (July 2026) Capital inflows into EMs financial markets – particularly equities – have risen over the past month despite the resumption of conflict in the Middle East. Outflows could return again if the situation... 29th July 2026 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Are the wheels falling off the AI stock market train? The share prices of some of the global tech giants at the heart of the AI revolution have come under pressure amid a variety of concerns, raising the question of whether the wheels are falling off the... 28th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asia Chart Pack (July 2026) Our Asia Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most economies in Asia look set to record solid growth this year, helped by very strong... 28th July 2026 · 0 mins read
FX Markets Focus Korean won and Taiwanese dollar may rally if AI bubble bursts The ongoing AI boom has not translated into stronger currencies in Korea and Taiwan, despite surging semiconductor exports and, notwithstanding the recent selloff, major rallies in their equity... 28th July 2026 · 20 mins read
