Asset Allocation Update Is US equity exceptionalism back for good? We’re nudging up our forecasts for equities in most non-US developed markets, partly in response to our upwardly revised projections for the S&P 500. But we still think they’ll lag equities in the US... 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Chinese exporters unlikely to benefit from US court ruling Even if the higher courts uphold the order to remove Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, we doubt this would result in a lasting tariff reduction for China. Both Trump's love for tariffs and the... 30th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ’s pessimism is facing reality check Firms’ output forecasts suggest that Japanese exporters are benefitting from US demand shifting away from China. And with inflation running miles ahead of the Bank of Japan’s overly pessimistic... 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equities could thrive despite tariffs We’re cautiously optimistic about the prospects for China’s stock market over the rest of the year, despite the clear headwinds it faces. 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr. 25) If anything, the April activity data suggest that Japan’s economy is benefitting from trade tensions, which bodes well for our view that the Bank of Japan will hike rates again soon. 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tokyo CPI (May 25) The Tokyo CPI showed a further broad-based acceleration in inflation in inflation, which suggests that the Bank of Japan may hike rate even earlier than our current forecast of October. 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Rerouting will ease tariff blow to Chinese exports The Trump Administration has announced that transshipped goods will be subject to a 40% tariff instead of the regular reciprocal rates. This will stack on top of any other tariffs applicable to the... 29th May 2025 (Updated 1st August 2025) · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2025) Capital inflows into EMs have been resurgent over the past few weeks amid a broad improvement in global risk appetite. But while our base case is that EM markets eke out further gains, the range of... 29th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the US court ruling on tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
RBI Watch RBI Watch: Falling inflation gives RBI scope to keep cutting With headline inflation now at a multi-year low, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is poised to cut the repo rate by another 25bps (to 5.75%) at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Friday 6th June. In... 29th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea set to cut rates further The dovish tone adopted by the Bank of Korea today, alongside what we think will be continued weakness of the economy suggest that further interest rate cuts are likely in the coming months. 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Tariffs start to drag on China’s growth Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy’s growth slowed in April. But, so far, US tariffs seem to have had a bigger impact on consumer sentiment than industrial activity, with rerouting and... 28th May 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (May 2025) The early evidence suggests that EM exports have held up well, despite higher US tariffs. That’s partly because exporters have front-loaded shipments to the US or have avoided high tariffs via third... 28th May 2025 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India will leave Japan (and Germany) trailing in its wake Debate around whether or not India’s economy has surpassed Japan’s in size is raging, but the big picture is that India was always going to overtake Japan – and also Germany – given its positive... 28th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily More thoughts on the JGB drama, and what it means for the world Despite all of the debt and deficit news out of the US, the spotlight in ultra-long bond markets has increasingly been focused on Japan. The surge in yields there last week seems to have sparked a... 28th May 2025 · 4 mins read
