China Economics Update China’s exports to the US set to collapse Unless they are rolled back, the latest US tariff hikes mean that China’s shipments to the US will more than halve over the coming years, even assuming the renminbi weakens to 8.00/$. This will reduce... 9th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Escalating trade war will keep BoJ on sidelines for now Even if Japan’s attempts to negotiate a trade deal with Trump succeed quickly, concerns about the impact of escalating tensions between the US and other trading partners will force the Bank of Japan... 9th April 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: China reciprocates, renminbi weakens, Shein on top The offshore renminbi ends the week roughly where it was relative to the dollar when Donald Trump started speaking in the Rose Garden on Wednesday. Fortunately for exporters, the currency has still... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Estimating the shock to growth in Asia Economies in Asia have been hit with many of the highest “reciprocal” tariffs. The resulting fall in US demand could plausibly knock over 1% off GDP in several Asian economies over the coming year... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update China hits back, hard China has responded to US tariffs with an additional 34% tariff on all US goods, the most sweeping it has ever imposed. Some US companies have also been added to China’s unreliable entities list and... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Economy can withstand tariff blow If the 26% US tariff on India is sustained it is likely to reduce economic activity but the impact won't be very big given that India is not especially reliant on US demand. And the RBI can give an... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: Easing political crisis won’t be a gamechanger Korea’s Constitutional Court upheld President Yoon’s impeachment today which should ease concerns around Korea’s democratic institutions and institutional frameworks. With fresh presidential elections... 4th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Tariff fallout reduces chances of near-term rate The uncertainty from the recent US tariff announcements has reduced the chances of a near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan. But if we’re right that the hit to Japan’s economy will ultimately be... 4th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
China Economics Update US tariff rate on China now almost 70% We’d already assumed substantial US tariffs on China in our forecasts. But the latest hikes take them even higher than we had anticipated. The economic hit to China will range between 0.5-1.0% of GDP... 3rd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update First thoughts on the impact of US tariffs on Asia Asian economies will be hit harder than most by US reciprocal tariffs. We were already expecting more rate cuts than the consensus in most countries in the region, but there’s now a risk that central... 3rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update The makings of a global LNG glut With demand for LNG unlikely to keep pace with the looming surge in supply over the coming years, a glut of natural gas will weigh heavily on benchmark prices in Asia and Europe. Our forecasts for... 2nd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing steady, but tariffs cloud the outlook The EM manufacturing PMI ticked up in March on the back of a pick-up in China as well as a continued recovery in Central and Eastern Europe. But tariffs present a major headwind to EMs’ industrial... 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch RBI Watch: Tariffs would reinforce case for further easing The recent sharp drop in headline CPI inflation means that the Reserve Bank is primed to cut the repo rate again at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Wednesday 9th April. And barring a debilitating... 1st April 2025 · 6 mins read
