China Rapid Response China PMIs (Jan. 2025) The Caixin services and composite PMIs released today add to growing evidence that China's economy lost momentum last month. The breakdown shows that the employment index of the Caixin composite PMI... 27th January 2025 (Updated 3rd February 2025) · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s labour market to remain tight despite rate hikes The experience from other advanced economies is that there’s no hard and fast rule for how long it will take for the labour market to loosen in response to rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. But with... 27th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update How much yield divergence can we expect this year? We forecast bond yields to fall over the rest of 2025 in Germany, the UK, and New Zealand, even though we think the relief rally in US Treasuries is over. And we anticipate yields to rise in Japan. 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: How vulnerable is Korea to a second Trump presidency? Our assumption is that Trump will impose a 10% tariff on all US imports (including on Korea), most likely sometime in the second quarter. On its own this would not have a huge impact on Korea, since a... 24th January 2025 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Looking for clarity on Trump tariffs and H-1B visas Two key uncertainties for India from Trump's second term - the size and scope of tariffs and the future of the H-1B visa scheme - are no closer to being cleared up. We continue to assume a 10%... 24th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Taiwan GDP (Q4 first estimate) Taiwan’s economy picked up in Q4, and we expect GDP growth to remain robust over the coming quarters, helped by continued strong growth in information and communication technology exports. 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily BoJ hikes could push Japan’s 10-year yield past China’s We think further tightening by the Bank of Japan will see the 10-year Japanese government bond yield rise above that of the 10-year Chinese government bond, for the first time in more than two decades... 24th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will lift rates to 1.25% by mid-2026 The Bank of Japan signalled further tightening when it lifted its policy rate to 0.5% today. With inflation set to remain above its 2% target this year, we expect the policy rate to reach 1.25% next... 24th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Bank of Japan will lift rates above 1% next year The Bank of Japan signaled further tightening when it lifted its policy rate to 0.5% this week and we expect rates to climb further than most expect over the coming year. Meanwhile, the budget deficit... 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Trump’s trade plans still unclear, service sector improving We still have little clarity on the timing or size of any tariff increases President Trump is planning to impose on China. For now, we are sticking with our assumption that a 60% tariff will be... 24th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Singapore Monetary Policy Announcement (January 2025) 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jan. 25) The continued rise in the composite PMI to its highest point since Q3 last year supports our view that activity will pick up again this quarter. Today’s flash estimate showed that the manufacturing... 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Dec. 24) The acceleration in headline inflation and strength in underlying inflation in December should add to the Bank’s confidence that it can resume rate hikes today and over the coming months. In December... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s export gains go beyond strategic goods China’s surging exports have been gaining international attention, but concerns about overcapacity have focussed on “strategic sectors”. Far less acknowledged is the fact that China has been gaining... 22nd January 2025 · 4 mins read
