Japan Rapid Response

Japan External Trade (August 2024)

Even though the trade balance held up much better than most had anticipated in August, net trade will still provide a large drag on Q3 GDP growth.

18th September 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EMs: key client questions answered

We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on...

16th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Is the renminbi the next domino for China’s markets?

We think the renminbi is more likely to strengthen than weaken against the US dollar, over time, despite a range of apparent threats to it.

16th September 2024 · 4 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Activity & Spending (Aug. 2024)

Activity growth slowed last month, falling short of expectations across the board. The service sector is still faring reasonably well and the fiscal support that’s already in the pipeline should help...

16th September 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Update

US ending de minimis tariff waiver for Chinese firms

The US is moving to limit the de minimis tariff exemption that has supported a surge in low value shipments from China over recent years. Only a subset of the roughly 8% of China’s exports to the US...

13th September 2024 · 4 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Struggling dollar may be due a break

The US dollar is ending the week on the back foot against most currencies amid mounting expectation for a 50bp cut by the Fed next week. That comes in the wake of two seemingly coordinated pieces in...

13th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Silver to stay in gold’s shadow, China trade takeaways

For all the attention on gold this year, silver has been the better performer with prices increasing by over 25% year-to-date. While silver has benefitted from the expansion in China's solar industry...

13th September 2024 · 4 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.)

Both broad credit and bank loan growth slowed in August, coming in below expectations. (See Chart 1.) While stronger government spending should give the economy a boost over the coming months, that...

13th September 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Retirement age increase, import slowdown

The increase in China's retirement age announced today will provide a near-term boost to employment. But it won't do much to counteract long-run demographic headwinds. And while weak domestic demand...

13th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Fed easing, SBP rate cut, BoK’s dovish minutes

Bank Indonesia tends to place a lot of weight on US Federal Reserve decisions because of its mandate to ensure currency stability. We think a cut by the Fed on Wednesday will give the green light for...

13th September 2024 · 8 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Courting China, commodities, consumer prices

Signs of a further thawing in relations between India and China provide more evidence of a growing theme of countries courting Chinese investment, not as a rejection of the potential benefits from US...

13th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Bank of Japan sticking to hawkish script

Import price inflation slowed sharply in August and if the yen continues to strengthen, it may turn negative as soon as September. That may prompt the Bank of Japan to judge near-term risks to...

13th September 2024 · 6 mins read

China Economics Update

The differences for China in Harris versus Trump

A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper, higher tariffs (probably) on Chinese goods, and...

12th September 2024 · 5 mins read

India Rapid Response

India Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024)

The slight rise in India’s headline CPI inflation in August reinforces our view that the Reserve Bank will proceed with a bit of caution and keep rates unchanged in its next meeting in October. But it...

12th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

What the Fed’s easing cycle means for EMs

The Fed’s upcoming monetary easing cycle will probably provide less of a tailwind to EMs than is widely thought. While it’s likely to give some central banks (such as in the Gulf, Mexico and Indonesia...

12th September 2024 · 4 mins read