India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (September 2025) After an exceptionally strong first half of 2025, India’s economy faces a more challenging rest of this year and 2026 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if... 18th September 2025 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Summer investment slump likely to be short-lived If the sharp slowdown in fixed investment over the summer were to be sustained, China’s economy would suffer a hard landing. However, it appears mostly to reflect temporary weather-related factors and... 18th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Taiwan Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate on hold today (at 2.00%) and, against the backdrop of rapid economic growth and low inflation, we expect policy settings to be left unchanged... 18th September 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China's Nvidia ban signals strong push for chip self-sufficiency The immediate consequence for China’s economy of banning the import of Nvidia chips will be limited. But the move signals a strong commitment by China’s leadership to developing cutting-edge chip... 17th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is... 17th September 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2025) Bank Indonesia’s decision today to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25bps to 4.75% came as a major surprise and is likely to further fuel concerns about the central bank’s independence. Following... 17th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Can Japan meet its US investment pledge? Japan will struggle to invest $550bn in foreign direct investment in the US. But we suspect that this sum also includes other forms of capital, which would make it feasible to meet the target and... 17th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Is the clock ticking on China’s equity rally? We think China’s equities will make further gains. 17th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market to feel the weight of rising inventories Low OECD commercial oil inventories have so far provided OPEC+ some cover to raise output, but we suspect that a softening in global demand and increases in OPEC+ supply will lead to commercial oil... 16th September 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Rerouting providing less of an offset Our updated estimates suggest that trade rerouting is so far doing less to insulate Chinese exports from US tariffs than in the past. That’s largely because rerouting via Mexico hasn’t picked up since... 16th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Korea unpacked: the outlook for the year ahead Korea’s economy has rebounded strongly in recent months. However, we don’t expect this to last. Weaker exports, fading fiscal support and the continued downturn in the property market are likely to... 16th September 2025 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update Prabowo risks deepening Indonesia’s economic problems The recent protests in Indonesia underscore deep-seated economic frustrations. Despite solid headline GDP growth in recent years, wages have been stagnant and the middle class has been shrinking... 15th September 2025 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Aug. 2025) The activity data point to a further loss of momentum last month. While some of this reflects temporary weather-related disruptions, underlying growth is clearly sliding, raising pressure on... 15th September 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Government bond yields rising, tariff barriers climbing We're sceptical that the government's supply-side reform will succeed in pulling the economy out of deflation, suggesting the recent rise in government bond yields won't be sustained. And, while... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Q4 Outlook, inflation bottoms out, China-India-US relations The main message from our Q4 India Economic Outlook published this week is that while punitive US tariffs will weigh on growth over the coming quarters, India is likely to remain a relative bright... 12th September 2025 · 3 mins read
