Capital Daily Another BoJ jump-start for the yen seems less likely While we do think the Bank of Japan will surprise with another hike this year, we suspect it will coincide with a more gradual strengthening of the yen rather than the sharp rally we saw last time. 20th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates once more in December The Bank of Japan today signalled that it’s in no rush to tighten monetary policy any further and we’re pushing back our forecast for a final rate hike to 0.5% from October to December. 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Sri Lanka election risks, new Indonesia rate forecast Sri Lanka has enjoyed a steady, if unspectacular recovery from the 2022 debt default crisis. However, this progress could be put at risk depending on the results of this weekend’s presidential... 20th September 2024 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China Policy Rates (Sep. 2024) The lack of any reduction to policy rates today, despite the clear economic case for doing so, underscores the extent to which the PBOC remains constrained by concerns about bank profitability and... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Five key themes in world trade In the months ahead, there are five themes to watch for in the world of trade and shipping, the most immediate of which is the risk of strikes at US East and Gulf coast ports in October. The upshot is... 19th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Commodities Focus Metals: China slowdown to offset green transition While the green transition and AI-related use will boost demand for industrial metals over the rest of this decade, we expect this to largely be offset by a substantial contraction in demand from... 19th September 2024 · 10 mins read
China Economics Update Slowdown still has a lot further to run An acceleration in fiscal spending during the final months of the year should mean the 2024 growth target of “around 5.0%” is met, but only just – we now expect growth of 4.8% this year. China’s... 19th September 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rate cuts on the horizon The economy is cooling but remains primed to grow by 6-6.5% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next couple of years... 18th September 2024 · 16 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (August 2024) Even though the trade balance held up much better than most had anticipated in August, net trade will still provide a large drag on Q3 GDP growth. 18th September 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2024) EM recoveries are beginning to slow and will continue to do so over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard... 17th September 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs: key client questions answered We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on... 16th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Is the renminbi the next domino for China’s markets? We think the renminbi is more likely to strengthen than weaken against the US dollar, over time, despite a range of apparent threats to it. 16th September 2024 · 4 mins read
