Asia Economics Weekly Malaysia subsidy cuts, BoK minutes, Pakistan budget Headline inflation in Malaysia has been among the lowest in Asia but that is soon set to change now that the government is pushing ahead with long-planned subsidy cuts aimed at improving the public... 14th June 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Europe leaves the road open for China’s EV-makers China protested the European Commission’s imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles this week but, if the EU goes no further, China’s government is likely to see this as a... 14th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Taiwan Monetary Policy Announcement (June) Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate unchanged today (at 2.0%), and with growth set to remain strong we expect rates to remain on hold throughout 2024 and 2025. In contrast, the... 13th June 2024 · 4 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (May 2024) Consumer price inflation came in cooler than most expected last month, which should reassure the RBI as it considers when to begin its easing cycle. We remain comfortable with our long-held view that... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Thailand Monetary Policy Announcement (June) Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today left interest rates unchanged and appeared in no rush to loosen policy. We think the weakness of the economy and very low inflation will persuade the central bank... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (May 2024) Producer prices picked up for the first time in eight months and consumer price inflation held steady in May. We expect inflation to rebound in the coming months. But due to persistent overcapacity... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2024) Net capital inflows into EMs have climbed back into positive territory in recent weeks, driven by a sharp rise in foreign investors’ purchases of Turkish government debt. This strength could continue... 11th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan cuts rate, but further easing to be gradual The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kicked off its easing cycle today with a 150bps rate cut, and while further cuts are likely, ongoing negotiations with the IMF for a new long-term loan deal mean that... 10th June 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Still struggling to curb dependence on China Today’s trade data underscore again the extent to which global demand is supporting China’s economy, and how little impact the trade restrictions of recent years have had. China’s export volumes have... 7th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT to cut rates, inflation falling in Korea, Modi 3.0 A weak economy, low inflation and a strengthening currency mean the conditions are in place for the Bank of Thailand to begin loosening monetary policy at its meeting on Wednesday. Meanwhile... 7th June 2024 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (May 2024) Export values rose y/y at the fastest pace since April 2023, with export volumes also picking up. We think exports will remain strong in the coming months, defying the expansion of Western tariffs... 7th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Attention turns towards the return of La Niña A return of La Niña could provide some respite for those commodity producers who have been hit hardest by El Niño. But it could also pose problems for others – not least in South America – and so... 6th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth robust in Q1 but disparities persist Aggregate EM GDP growth remained strong in Q1, though we still expect a slowdown later this year. At a regional level, Emerging Asia will lead the pack, however there are tentative signs that... 6th June 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Exports to remain a near-term prop to growth Global demand is giving a bigger boost to China’s economy than we had anticipated this year and foreign tariffs will make little difference to aggregate export performance in the near term. We now... 4th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing performance strong but uneven The EM manufacturing PMI remained at a three-year high in May but the picture is becoming increasingly nuanced at a country level. Meanwhile, the PMIs also showed price pressures rose again last month... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (May) The Manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Asia remained weak in May but have been a poor guide to the hard data on activity over the past year anyway. However, the PMIs have been a decent guide to price... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
