Taiwan’s Economic Growth Beats Expectations in Strong Start to Year “With growth set to remain strong and concerns about inflation still lingering, the central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates,” said Shivaan Tandon, emerging Asia economist at CE. There is even a... 30th April 2024 · Wall Street Journal
China Economics Focus Overcapacity will keep inflation near zero Most analysts expect China’s inflation rate to rebound to around 2% by 2026. In contrast, we think that persistent imbalances between supply and demand will keep it close to zero for the foreseeable... 30th April 2024 · 14 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Apr. 24) China’s senior leadership has today signalled further fiscal and monetary support for the economy and renewed efforts to stabilise the housing market. That should help prolong the recent economic... 30th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Taiwan GDP (Q1 2024, adv) Taiwan’s economy accelerated in y/y terms last quarter and we expect growth to remain strong over the coming year, helped by robust demand for AI-related products. 30th April 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Apr. 2024) While the Caixin services PMI edged down last month, it dropped by less than its official counterpart, and the survey data for April is still consistent with some improvement in momentum since the... 30th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What Trump’s return would mean for EMs All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal... 29th April 2024 · 13 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC bond trading, LGFV pullback The PBOC has clarified that its plans to start trading government bonds are aimed at managing interest rate risk, not conducting QE. This reinforces our sense that large-scale monetary easing remains... 26th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Will any other central banks hike interest rates? We are not expecting any other central banks in the region to follow Bank Indonesia and hike interest rates to support their currencies. However, one central bank worth monitoring is the State Bank of... 26th April 2024 · 9 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Korea GDP (Q1, 2024) GDP growth in Korea rose sharply in Q1 but we don't expect this strength to last. Weak global growth is set to weigh on exports in the near term while tight monetary and fiscal policy will curtail... 25th April 2024 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Cyclical recovery still underway Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests the economy saw a healthy expansion in March, driven by the continued strength of industry. While we think that fiscal support will keep fuelling the economy in... 24th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: surprise hike, but no further tightening likely In a surprise move, Bank Indonesia (BI) today hiked its main policy rate by 25bps (to 6.25%) and made clear that supporting the currency would remain its key priority over the coming months. But there... 24th April 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China trip notes – sentiment still depressed A week spent visiting clients, contacts and friends in Beijing and Shanghai has underlined the extent of the pessimistic shift in sentiment within China. 23rd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Another tough year ahead for Korean consumers A weak labour market and high interest rates will continue to weigh heavily on Korea’s consumer sector this year. The poor prospects for consumer spending is one of the main reasons we think overall... 22nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Time to worry about inflation (again)? Recent currency falls and higher oil prices are unlikely to put significant upward pressure on consumer prices across Asia. We continue to expect inflation in the region to remain low over the coming... 22nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
