China Economics Weekly Property support, imbalances growing, tariff retaliation The property support measures outlined today are significant. If local governments and SOEs take advantage of the funding on offer to buy unsold inventory from developers, sales would rise by around... 17th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BI on hold, new leaders, Biden tariffs The recent recovery in the rupiah means Bank Indonesia is unlikely to follow up April’s surprise hike with another interest rate increase when it meets on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Korea could prove to be... 17th May 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia GDP (Q1 2024, second estimate) The second estimate of Q1 GDP confirmed that the economy rebounded last quarter but we continue to expect below-trend GDP growth this year as a whole. The softening labour market, tighter fiscal... 17th May 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Apr. 2024) Industrial production continued to accelerate thanks to strong exports, but growth on most other indicators slowed, pointing to softer domestic demand. We expect a renewed pick-up over the coming... 17th May 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Destocking could offer a short-run fix to property woes Government purchases of unsold housing may help to stabilise China’s property sector in the near-term, alleviating a key economic headwind. But they won’t prevent the sector from shrinking... 16th May 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s overseas lending push has stalled Overseas loans by Chinese banks peaked in late 2021 and have since been curtailed in response to increased debt problems among EM borrowers. While these strains are partly a consequence of global... 16th May 2024 · 15 mins read
China Economics Update US tariffs tighten the ratchet again The tariffs announced today on US imports from China won’t cause much direct economic damage since trade in the affected goods is already low. But US economic sanctions on China seem to act like a... 14th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: demographics key challenge for new PM Increased immigration would be the easiest way for Singapore to offset a decline in the working age population. However, such a move would be politically controversial, and deciding how many foreign... 14th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2024) Capital flows into EM bonds and equities have fallen to their lowest in six months as investors have pared back expectations for Fed interest rate cuts. However, even with these moves, we remain more... 13th May 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr. 2024) PPI deflation eased and CPI inflation rose in March, but they remained relatively subdued compared with pre-pandemic norms. We think inflation will continue to edge up in the near term. But persistent... 13th May 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) Broad credit growth slowed sharply to its weakest pace on record last month. This threatens to derail the ongoing economic recovery and is likely to trigger additional policy easing. Increased fiscal... 13th May 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Targeted regulations won’t fix structural overcapacity With the EU and US both apparently moving closer to imposing new trade restrictions on EVs and possibly on other "new energy" products from China, China's state media this week made a concerted effort... 10th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP to sound dovish, inflation eases in Taiwan The central bank in the Philippines is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its scheduled meeting on Thursday. However, the sharp slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter means the BSP... 10th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Stubborn services inflation could slow rate cuts further The persistent strength in core services inflation in some EMs outside Asia raises the chances that central banks cut interest rates by less than the consensus expects this year, not least because it... 9th May 2024 · 4 mins read
