Emerging Markets Economics Update EM disinflation has further to run Aggregate EM inflation is now at its lowest level in four years, with notable declines this year across Asia. We still think the outlook will be characterised by higher inflation in Latin America and... 10th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update EU tariffs not stopping China’s EV exporters Auto exporters in China have adapted to the EU’s tariffs on EVs by lowering export prices and focusing on vehicles that are not subject to tariffs. Even if trade restrictions were to remain in place... 10th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: on hold, but more easing to come The Bank of Korea left interest rates unchanged at its meeting today (at 2.50%), but gave strong hints that the easing cycle still had further to run. With growth set to struggle and inflation... 10th July 2025 · 3 mins read
APAC Commercial Property Chart Pack APAC Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2025) All-property Asia-Pacific capital values fell at a slower rate of 3.4% y/y in Q1, driven by smaller declines in Australia and Hong Kong. But looking ahead, we expect the upturn in both investment... 9th July 2025 · 0 mins read
Asia Economics Update Time to worry about deflation in Asia? Outside of China, there is no immediate threat of any other country in Asia falling into a prolonged period of deflation. That said, persistently weak price pressures are likely to remain a worry for... 9th July 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun. 2025) Headline inflation came out of negative territory last month, with core inflation rising to its highest level in over a year, likely reflecting the effects of the consumer goods trade-in scheme. But... 9th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Trade negotiations to take centre stage for Asia Trump has confirmed that punitive tariffs on Asian countries will take effect on 1 st August unless trade deals are agreed by the end of the month. Despite the urgency, negotiations could prove... 8th July 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Childbirth subsidies a small step toward rebalancing China has just confirmed an annual childcare allowance for parents with children below 3 years old. The sums involved are too small to have a near-term impact on the birth rate or consumption. But the... 8th July 2025 (Updated 28th July 2025) · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Tariff uncertainty may delay BoJ rate hikes until 2026 Our base case remains that Japan will reach a deal with the US to fend off the threatened 25% US tariff. If that deal is reached soon and includes no or only a modest increase in the US tariff rate... 8th July 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump threatens to resurrect 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea President Donald Trump has released the first of his “letters” threatening to impose country-specific tariffs of 25% on both Japan and South Korea from August 1 st, if those countries can’t reach a... 7th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) The decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the pace of output hikes in August cements our view that the downward pressure on oil prices will intensify over the next 18 months or so. Admittedly, we assume... 7th July 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Demographic decline: what Taiwan can learn from Korea Taiwan and Korea face some of the world’s worst demographic headwinds with working-age populations set to shrink by 1% a year over the next decade. Efforts to boost fertility have largely failed, and... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam’s export success only partly due to rerouting Vietnam’s US-bound exports have surged since the US imposed very high tariffs on imports from China. While the export figures are overstating the benefits to Vietnam’s economy due to a surge in... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
